By Dan Murphy
The race for NY Governor got a lot more interesting over the past week, with former President Donald Trump endorsing Zeldin, and recent polls have Zeldin closing the gap with Governor Kathy Hochul to 4 points in one poll. President Trump’s endorsement of Zeldin came on his Truth Social media platform on Oct. 16.
“I have watched and known Congressman Lee Zeldin for many years. He is a great and brilliant lawyer who was a “must see” for others in Congress when they had a complex legal problem that was holding up legislation. Lee was strong on the Border, Crime, ourgreat Military & Vets (like few others!), and fought hard to protect our 2nd Amendment, and succeeded. Lee Zeldin is a WINNER who GOT THINGS DONE. He will be a GREAT Governor of New York, and has my Complete & Total Endorsement. GOOD LUCK LEE!”
But Trump’s endorsement of Zeldin was highlighted by the Hochul campaign, which wrote, “With an endorsement from Trump himself, Lee Zeldin now has a formal stamp of approval as the most extreme and dangerous candidate to ever run for governor in New York State history. Becoming the former president’s handpicked choice for governor proves Zeldin’s full embrace of the MAGA agenda and shows just how out of touch he is with New York voters.”
A day after keeping quiet, Zeldin said, “We welcome everybody’s support to this campaign. I’m my own man, This race is about Lee Zeldin against Kathy Hochul deciding the future of New York State. It’s not about the former president,”
President Donald Trump has not been helpful for republicans in Westchester County. Rob Astorino lost his re-election as county executive in 2017 to George Latimer. But Astorino lost by 16 points, and most believe that not all of that can be attributed to Trump.
State Senator Terrence Murphy lost his re-election in 2018 to State Senator Peter Harckham by a 51%-48% margin, close enough to blame on the Trump factor. Many believe that Murphy should still be in the Senate today, were it not for the Trump factor.
In 2020, Astorino ran for the same senate seat against Harckham, and lost by a 51%-48% margin. Both Murphy and Astorino had their photos with Trump printed and televised all over the district.
Westchester Democrats are hoping that they can play the Trump card again in 2022. And Zeldin would certainly fit into the targeted category; he is a big supporter of Trump and even voted to overturn the election of 2020. But the reason that 2022 may be different can be found in recent polling data, which has Zeldin closing the gap against Hochul to alarming numbers if you are a democrat, and enthusiasm for the republicans.
A Quinnipiac University Poll released on Oct. 18 showed Hochul’s lead over Zeldin shrinking to just four points, 50% -46%. Two important pieces of this poll are Independents going for Zeldin 57%-37%, and Zeldin supported by 37% of New York City voters, normally a 80% lock for democrats.
“In the blue state of New York, the race for governor is competitive. Democrats have cruised to victory in gubernatorial races since 2006, but Governor Hochul’s narrow edge puts Republican Lee Zeldin well within striking distance of her,” said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Mary Snow.
Two other recent polls did not have the race as close. A Sienna Poll has it 52%-41%, and a Marist Poll has Hochul up by 8. Hochul and Zeldin have yet to debate each other. Hochul has agreed to one debate on Oct. 25 on Spectrum; Zeldin wants five debates and hasn’t agreed to settle for one. We hope to see at least one debate between the two before Election Day Nov. 8, and before early voting begins Oct. 29.
