MEMORANDUM
TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Lawler for Congress
DATE: October 27, 2026
RE: American Forge Coalition: no disclaimer, no FEC filing, and the same designer as 2024’s Save Western Culture
Summary
● An anonymous group, American Forge Coalition, mailed attacks on Congressman Mike Lawler into Republican homes across NY-17 on October 23 and 24, eleven days before Election Day.
● The mailers are missing the disclaimer federal law requires, and the group has filed nothing with the FEC.
● No public record names who runs it or who pays for it.
● The mailers come from the same designer as Save Western Culture, the pop-up super PAC that hit Lawler with NY-17 Republicans in 2024: the identical photograph of the Congressman and the identical design scheme.
● The same week POLITICO reported an anonymous push poll in NJ-7, the same firm, Nors Surveys, texted NY-17 voters a poll that tested the mailers’ “13 million” amnesty line and asked whether they would skip the race.
● The Department of Justice has told the Lawler campaign it referred American Forge Coalition to the FBI.
1. What landed in mailboxes
● Two versions, mail codes AFC_220 and AFC_281.
○ Front: “Mike Lawler Put Us at Risk.” Says Lawler “supported letting criminals escape justice after illegally entering our nation.”
○ Reverse: “No Mass Amnesty.” Says he “supports giving mass amnesty to up to 13 million criminal illegals.”
● Call to action: (845) 201-2060, the Congressman’s Pearl River congressional district office.
● Disclosure line, in full: “Paid for by American Forge Coalition.”
● Postal indicia: “PRSRT STD U.S. POSTAGE PAID RMS 08899.” ZIP 08899 is a non-residential postal ZIP in Edison, N.J.
As received, recipient addresses redacted. Front, version AFC_220:
2. No disclaimer, no FEC filing
● Disclaimer missing. Federal rules require mail like this to carry the payer’s address, phone number or website and a statement that it is not authorized by any candidate (11 CFR 110.11). The mailers carry neither.
● They know the rule. The group’s own website prints the full line: “Paid for by American 3
Forge Coalition. Not authorized by any candidate or candidate’s committee.” ● Nothing filed. No FEC committee is registered under the name. None of the 259 24- and 48-hour reports filed on the Lawler race since September 1 is from American Forge Coalition (checked the morning of October 27).
● The deadline has passed. From October 15 through November 1, spending of $1,000 or more for or against a federal candidate must be reported within 24 hours. ● Foreign money can’t be ruled out. Foreign nationals are barred from paying for election spending, directly or indirectly (52 U.S.C. 30121). The group names no donor, so no one can check.
● Referred to the FBI. The Lawler campaign reported the group to the Department of Justice, which has told the campaign it referred the group to the FBI.
3. American Forge Coalition: no people, no address, no record
● No legal name, entity type, officer, address, EIN or FEC ID anywhere on the site. ● The only “American Forge” in IRS nonprofit records is an unrelated group in Pacific, Mo. ● Domain registered through GoDaddy on May 27, 2026, owner’s name withheld. ● Privacy policy dated May 14, 2026, 13 days before the domain existed. ● Petition paragraph copied, nearly word for word, from Senate Majority PAC, the main Senate Democratic super PAC:
○ American Forge (May 14, 2026): “When you sign a petition, we treat your name, city, state, and any comments you make as public information. We may, for example, provide compilations of petitions, with your personal information including comments, to national leaders.”
○ Senate Majority PAC (March 14, 2022): “We may treat your name, city, state, and any comments as public information. We may, for example, provide compilations of petitions, with your comments, to national leaders, without disclosing e-mail addresses.”
● “412k signatures” and “73 town halls” are typed into the page’s HTML, not pulled from any live count.
● Hosted on Vercel; the petition form posts to the site’s own custom code, not EveryAction, NationBuilder, Action Network, or any standard political tool.
● Email and text consent boxes come pre-checked.
● Privacy policy allows sharing signers’ data with “other businesses with which we partner or which we carefully select to offer you products, services, and promotions.” ● Runs a Meta Pixel (2672906456457473) and Google Analytics (G-57RTH83J2Z). A web search for either ID returns no other site.
● Policy boilerplate refers to “customers” and “credit-card payment processors.” The site sells nothing.
● No news coverage, social media account, or outside mention before these mailers.
4. Save Western Culture, 2024
● Registered with the FEC as a super PAC October 11, 2024. Treasurer: Seth Martin. Address: a mailbox in Greenfield, Mass.
● Only funding: $1.6 million from Stop China Now Inc. on October 17, 2024 (The Hill, December 12, 2024).
○ Stop China Now: a Delaware nonprofit incorporated October 2, 2024, two weeks earlier.
○ Same UPS box address as the super PAC. Seth Martin was both its incorporator and the PAC’s treasurer.
○ The money landed one day after the last pre-election books closed. Voters saw it only after Election Day.
● Spent nearly $1.4 million on mail, ads and robocalls attacking Republicans in battleground races (The Hill).
● Former Republican FEC Chairman Lee Goodman: the arrangement raised “several red flags justifying further investigation.”
● NY-17: $22,259.68 to Apex Growth Strategies for direct mail opposing Lawler, spent October 24, 2024, mailed October 26 (its own 24-hour report).
● NY-19: $35,605.56 the same day through the same vendor against Rep. Marc Molinaro, who lost.
● The NY-17 mail: “Democrats can steal elections, thanks to RINO Congressman Mike Lawler”; “Vote NO on Mike Lawler November 5”; “President Trump needs Republicans who will stand with him, not RINOS LIKE MIKE LAWLER.”
Save Western Culture mail received in NY-17, 2024:
5. Same designer, same playbook
● Same photograph. The 2026 mailers use the identical photo of the Congressman that ran on the 2024 Save Western Culture mail.
● Same design scheme. Dark photo background, red-and-white headline, the Congressman cut out against the scene.
● Same audience. Republican households in NY-17.
● Same attack. Lawler hit from the right: a “RINO” disloyal to President Trump in 2024, “mass amnesty” in 2026.
● Same timing. Mail in homes 10 to 11 days before Election Day.
● Same vendors? Save Western Culture paid Apex Growth Strategies for its 2024 mail. Who designed, printed, and mailed the 2026 pieces under permit RMS 08899 is undisclosed.
● Same message. The poll tested the line the mailers carry: amnesty for “13 million” “criminal illegal” immigrants.
6. The push poll: same firm as NJ-7, same skip-the-race script
● Who sent it. A text from (845) 210-1583 branded “NORS SURVEYS, INC.”: “we need your input about important issues facing our community in NYACK.” The link opens a survey on q.metromia.com.
● Same firm as NJ-7. POLITICO identified Nors Surveys, a Miami company, as the firm that fielded the NJ-7 push poll. Its president said Nors did not write the survey, signed a nondisclosure agreement and would not name the client (POLITICO, October 2, 2026).
● Built for Republicans. The party question’s options include “I generally vote Republican, but there are circumstances where I would consider voting for a candidate from another party” and “I am dissatisfied enough with the Republican Party that I would seriously consider voting for an independent or third party candidate.”
● The suppression questions:
○ “If it became clear to you that neither candidate in a General Election, Republican or Democrat, shared your core values and beliefs, would you consider voting for a third party or independent candidate who did or would you just consider skipping that one race on your ballot?”
○ “Sometimes when candidates from both parties fail to match a person’s priorities and values, they’ll decide to skip and not vote in that one race. Knowing that Lawless Mike Lawler is a pro-choice, anti-gun liberal who supports the LGBTQ agenda and amnesty for criminal illegal immigrants, what are the chances that you may skip and not vote in this one race in this coming November’s General Election?”
● Word for word with NJ-7. The skip question POLITICO printed from the NJ-7 poll uses the same script with Kean’s name swapped in: “Sometimes when candidates from both parties fail to match a person’s priorities and values, they’ll decide to skip and not vote in that one race. Knowing that Thomas Kean Jr. is a liberal pro-choice career politician… what are the chances that you may skip and not vote in this one race in this coming
November’s general election?”
● The message test. Eight attacks on “Liberal Mike” and “Lawless Mike,” each rated from “much less likely” to “much more likely” to vote for him:
○ Endorsed by “Democrat politicians” and wants to uphold “Barack Hussein Obamacare subsidies.”
○ Marjorie Taylor Greene says he “hates Donald Trump”; he “bought into the Democrats’ story that President Trump lost the 2020 election” and opposed January 6 pardons.
○ Amnesty: “Lawless Mike’s proposal would grant 13 million or more criminal illegal immigrants amnesty.”
○ “The only Republican to cosponsor” temporary protected status “for 350 thousand Haitian foreigners.”
○ “Voted with New York socialists to ban access to certain firearms.”
○ “A strong supporter of the LGBTQ agenda… one of just four RINOs.” ○ “Directed over $800 thousand dollars in campaign donations to his own consulting firm Checkmate Strategies.”
○ “Pro-choice Mike Lawler”: “I will not support a national abortion ban.” ● The poll’s message matches the mail message. The poll tested amnesty for “13 million or more criminal illegal immigrants.” The American Forge mailers say Lawler “supports giving mass amnesty to up to 13 million criminal illegals.”
The text and the party question (respondent ID redacted):
The two suppression questions:
The message test:
7. Open questions
● Who runs American Forge Coalition, where is it incorporated, and who funds it?
● Who designed the mail, and who holds postal permit RMS 08899?
● Who hired Nors Surveys to field the NY-17 poll, and who wrote it?
● Who controls the Meta Pixel and Google Analytics accounts, and where do the names and phone numbers go?
● Will the group file what federal law requires before November 3?
● Cait Conley worked at the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, the federal agency charged with election security, from 2023 to January 2025. Will she condemn an anonymous group mailing into her own race?