By Dan Murphy
On April 24, the date of two special elections in Westchester, several voters appeared at Greenburgh Town Hall looking to vote for Democrat Shelley Mayer for state senator. The problem was that Mayer was running for State Senate in the 37th District, which doesn’t include Greenburgh, but the story told by Greenburgh Supervisor Paul Feiner underscores how motivated, excited and energized Democrats, Progressives and the Indivisible crowd were to elect both Mayer and county legislative candidate Terry Clements last week.
“I am honored to be part of the blue wave, I am honored to be part of your movement, and I am honored to be your new state senator,” said Mayer, who won a resounding 57 to 43 percent victory over Republican Julie Killian to become the next state senator from Westchester, to a large crowd of supporters at Molly Spillane’s in Mamaroneck on special election night, which included Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul.
“This campaign was always bigger than me,” said Mayer. “All of us are part of something bigger – a movement for change, a blue wave rising in special election after special election. Tonight, that wave rolled across Westchester, from Yonkers to Bedford. It was about the strength and energy of a big-tent Democratic Party where labor, Indivisibles, activists come together to fight for our shared values. It was about rejecting Trumpism and standing tall against bigotry as we fight for women’s rights, victims of sexual misconduct, environmental protections, and common-sense gun control.”
Mayer’s 57 to 43 percent victory over Killian was the same margin of victory that former State Sen. George Latimer defeated Robert Astorino with for county executive last November. Two years ago, Latimer defeated Killian for the same State Senate seat by a 55 to 45 percent margin, in a presidential year where Hillary Clinton trounced Donald Trump for president in Westchester by a 65 to 31 percent margin, with 4 percent to the minor party candidates.
What do all of these numbers mean? Westchester’s journalistic dean Phil Reisman called it “the full scale demise of the Republican Party in Westchester,” and pointed to a permanency of sorts for the blue wave of Democratic support in Westchester. The change has been happening for more than two years, with a few former Republicans switching parties over the past decade, most notably Yonkers Mayor Mike Spano and former District Attorney-now New York State Chief Judge Janet DiFiore.
But the election of President Donald Trump in 2016, and the corresponding anti-Trump fever, and the #metoo movement, calls for stricter gun control, the opposition to the Trump tax cuts which also included a cut in the state and local tax deduction, and a tax increase for many in Westchester, have all hurt Republicans and helped Democrats in Westchester.
The biggest evidence of the shift toward the left occurred last November, when Latimer defeated Astorino in a race that many had expected Astorino to win; instead he lost by 14 points. “Astorino covered up the blemishes of the Republican Party in Westchester for eight years,” said one county Republican. “He was popular, a good communicator, and had a good message. The GOP coasted off of him and now the problems are more evident.”
Mayer commented in one of her many post-election interviews that she had 2,000 volunteers working to elect her to the Senate. In previous special elections in Westchester, Republicans have had the edge because fewer people come out to vote and that used to mean more traditional, Republican voters. That didn’t happened for the special election April 24.
“All of the passion and intensity and urgency to win elections in Westchester is with the Democrats,” said one of our colleagues in the media. “In 20 years, I have never seen this type of enthusiasm for any candidate, especially in a special election, in Westchester. The passion in the room on election night, with the governor showing up, had more of a national flavor.”
In the other special election contest, Democrat Terry Clements defeated Republican Jim Freeman by a 54 to 46 percent margin in the 11th County Legislative District, representing parts of New Rochelle and Pelham.
Pelham is another community that is changing to become Democratic. For years Jim Maisano, the Republican county legislator from this district, won Pelham by a 2-1 margin. On special election night, Clements, a Democrat, won Pelham.
Last November, Maisano was re-elected to the County Board without Democratic opposition. That lack of opposition was not because democrats wanted to give him a free pass, it was because they didn’t think they could beat him. Five months later, a Democrat takes Maisano’s seat, and Democrats now have a blue wave tsunami, super-majority of 13-4 on the County Board.
Most keen political watchers in Westchester thought Mayer would win, including a few Republicans who, speaking off the record, would comment on how Shelley was one of a few Democrats they could work with. And surely the post-polling analysis will show that Independents who ran away from Trump ran to Mayer in the special election.
But the Freeman loss for the County Board is the one that hurts for the county GOP. “Freeman needed to win so that we could stem the tide,” said one Republican. “If we can’t hold that seat then we can hold the fort.”
The Republican pockets in Westchester remain – in Eastchester, Harrison and Yorktown. But as one old politico told us, they are melting like an ice cube and getting smaller and smaller. Yorktown Republican Town Supervisor Michael Grace lost last November; fellow Republicans Tony Colavita and Ron Belmont were re-elected in Eastchester and Harrison, but by narrower margins than in the past.
The next Republican battleground will be the race for State Senate in the 40th District, with Republican State Sen. Terrence Murphy running for re-election in November. His challenger so far is Democrat Robert Kesten.
Looking ahead six months, Mayer will have to run again for her Senate seat in November, but she will be running on a Democratic slate with Gov. Andrew Cuomo on top of the ticket, making it even tougher for Republicans to retake this seat in the fall. This Senate seat was re-drawn eight years ago by Republicans to make it possible for a Republican to win. Eight years later, with three victories by Latimer and one by Mayer, it has never happened.
Rumors are that Killian will not run again in November, leaving unknown who will try to lift the Republican flag in Westchester. Another rumor can also be put to rest – that Yonkers Mayor Mike Spano is still interested in running for this Senate seat and that if Killian defeated Mayer, Spano would attempt to be the candidate in November. Those dreams were dashed as we watched Cuomo embrace Mayer on Tuesday night.
The other takeaway from the Westchester special elections is that negative campaigning alone doesn’t work. In last year’s election for county executive, and now the recent Senate special election, Republicans dumped millions in negative campaign television commercials and mailings against Latimer and Mayer.
Republicans in Albany threw everything including the kitchen sink at Mayer during the campaign. “They bloodied her up good, but they couldn’t knock her down,” said one old political watcher. Most of the insinuations and accusations against Mayer did not resonate with voters, as evidenced by her large margin of victory.
Both Latimer and Mayer responded by linking Astorino and Killian to Trump. But both Latimer and Mayer had a positive message, and rationale for winning elections in Westchester. Republicans need to rethink and retool their message quickly – before it’s too late.
