The opening ad, “Solutions,” shows Hudson Valley voters describing what Lawler’s tax work has meant for their households. It goes up with Republicans holding a better-than-20-to-1 advantage over Cait Conley in reserved fall airtime, and Lawler leading independents by 15 points.
On Aug. 10, Lawler for Congress launched the first $5 million of its 2026 media campaign, opening the general election in what is expected to be one of the most expensive House races in the country. Axios first reported the buy on July 31. It runs across broadcast, cable, streaming, and digital in the New York market.
The first ad of the campaign is a 30-second spot titled “Solutions.” It opens with Congressman Mike Lawler saying, “If you’re going to fight for the Hudson Valley, you’ve got to know who you’re fighting for,” and then showcases Hudson Valley voters who have benefited from his tax wins for the district. Bill and Mary Jane, retirees whose federal tax bill went to zero under the new deduction for seniors. The Foxes, who received a $4,000 tax cut after the SALT cap was raised. Joanne and Ralph, who are keeping more of their tips and overtime pay. “Mike Lawler will never let us down,” Ralph says.
Lawler has run on the cost of living in the Hudson Valley since he got to Washington. He called restoring the state and local tax deduction his “number one focus in Washington from Day One,” and the cap quadrupled from $10,000 to $40,000, a change Mike Lawler won for Hudson Valley voters. The same law created a new $6,000 deduction for taxpayers 65 and older and new deductions for tip income and overtime pay.
The gap in reserved airtime is wider still. Republican groups and the Lawler campaign have roughly $9.8 million in television booked from now through Election Day in NY-17, according to ad reservation data. Democrats have booked $270,000 behind Conley, all of it airing this month, and have not reserved a single dollar of television after Labor Day. That is a better-than-35-to-1 advantage in committed airtime, with Election Day less than three months out. Democratic candidates and their outside groups have already spent close to $7 million in this district just getting through their June primary, and the national party is in no position to bail Conley out: per June 30 FEC reports, the DCCC trailed the NRCC in cash on hand, $79 million to $92.7 million, and the DNC reported more debt than money in the bank.
“Republicans have reserved more than thirty-five times what Democrats have put behind Cait Conley in this district, and anybody in politics can read a media buy,” said Lawler for Congress spokesman Ciro Riccardi. “Mike Lawler will be on television making his case from now until Election Day. Conley is going to spend the fall hoping Washington bails her out at the cost of other Democrats in key races across the country.”
Lawler leads Conley 50 to 45 in the most recent public survey of the district, a poll of 1,292 likely general election voters conducted by co/efficient on July 23 and not sponsored by any candidate or candidates’ committee. Among unaffiliated and third-party voters, he leads by 15 points, 54 to 39, and draws 23 percent of registered Democrats.
“Independent and unaffiliated voters decide elections in the Hudson Valley, and they are with Mike Lawler by fifteen points,” Riccardi concluded. “They know who fought to quadruple the SALT deduction and who is actually delivering on the cost of living. Cait Conley is losing this key voting bloc 54 to 39, and there is no version of this race where she can overcome that.”
Lawler represents one of just a handful of Republican-held districts in the country carried by Kamala Harris in 2024 and won reelection by more than six points. In the latest nonpartisan Bridge Grades report card, he earned a 99.2 out of 100 for bipartisanship, the best score in New York’s congressional delegation, and in the 118th Congress he was ranked 4th-most bipartisan by the nonpartisan Lugar Center.