Within the Margin of Error Between Lawler and Conley
By Dan Murphy
A new Emerson College Polling/PIX11 News survey of New York’s 17th congressional district finds a close race between incumbent Republican Mike Lawler and Democrat Cait Conley: 48% support Conley, 46% Lawler, and 7% are undecided. The poll of likely voters has a margin of error of 4.9%, putting the race between Lawler and Conley as a DEAD HEAT.
7% of those polled are still undecided.
There is an enthusiasm gap among NY-17 voters: those “very excited” to participate in the November election break for Conley by seven points, while those “somewhat excited” break for Lawler by 12 points, 52% to 40%.
Lawler’s favorability is split: 45% have a favorable view of the Congressman and 46% an unfavorable view. Conley has a higher share of neutral voters: 44% have a favorable view of her, 35% unfavorable, and 22% neutral.
22% of voters do not have an opinion of Conley. This gives both Conley and the Lawler campaign, 4 weeks to influence voters.
Voters say the economy is the top issue facing the state at 31%, followed by “threats to democracy” at 23%, immigration at 13%, and housing affordability at 12%.
Since 2024, concern about threats to democracy increased significantly, from 10% to 23%, while concern over immigration decreased from 20% to 13%.
Both President Trump and Governor Kathy Hochul are underwater in this poll. Hochul has a 40% Approve-49% Disappoval, while Trump has a 43% approve-53% disapproval.
“While Governor Hochul is underwater among voters in New York’s 17th district, her approval number has increased significantly since October 2024, from 26% to 40%,” Kimball said.
A majority of voters (52%) in NY17 disapprove of U.S. military action in Iran, while 37% support it, and 11% are unsure.
Democrats oppose military action in Iran 83% to 10%, while Republicans support it 69% to 15%. Independents are split: 44% support and 44% oppose military action in Iran.
Lawler leads with independent voters, which will be crucial is what is expected to be a razor tight election in NY-17, with some predicting that THIS ONE RACE COULD DETERMINE THE OUTCOME OF WHICH PARTY HOLDS THE MAJORITY.
Some took issue with the fact that the poll was conducted during the Jewish holiday of Sukkot. Others pointed out that Republicans, including Lawler in the past, are undervalued in most American polls by 2%-4%.