By Dan Murphy
Since making his announcement that he was once again exploring a run for president in 2020, former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has been taking a beating in the media, and from progressive Democrats who don’t support even the idea of his attempts to occupy the White House in 2021.
The opposition centers on his wealth, his enactment of stop-and-frisk in NYC in the 2000s, and his opposition to some of the progressive and impractical ideas presented by Democratic presidential candidates Senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders.
As a proud member of the independent-moderate block of the American electorate, there is a path, and a way that Mayor Bloomberg could become our next president. First, let me outline the reasons I believe Bloomberg is exactly the candidate our country needs at this time.
1.) He is running on competent public service and government. During his 12 years running New York City, Bloomberg turned an ungovernable city into a city that actually saw the trains run on time, a drop in crime to record lows, improvements in education and an overall improvement in the quality of life for all New Yorkers – and for the millions of suburban New Yorkers who work in the city, or who use the economic engine of NYC to improve their lives in Westchester, Nassau, Suffolk, Rockland and Putnam counties.
2.) Bloomberg does have Democratic principles that he can run on, and issues that he has used his billions to lobby for, primarily climate change and opposition to the National Rifle Association and the call for gun safety legislation.
3.) Regardless of what side of the aisle your politics may be, most Americans believe our national government in Washington, D.C., is failing us, and not working to solve the important issues facing our nation. Gridlock in Washington has only worsened since the election of President Donald Trump.
Our leaders in Washington have stood by as our national deficits have reached $1 trillion per year, and our national debt now exceeds $21 trillion. A large swath of Americans do not want to ruin their children’s and grandchildren’s futures by borrowing on their tab.
Now, here’s the pathway to a Bloomberg 2020 presidency, and it runs through the suburbs like Westchester County.
Step 1: Bloomberg runs for the Democratic nomination for president, but skips the Iowa Caucus and the New Hampshire and South Carolina Democratic primaries. Mayor Pete (Buttegeig) wins Iowa, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren wins New Hampshire. Former Vice President Joe Biden is a damaged presidential candidate beyond repair by the time he gets to South Carolina, which ends up splitting their votes between Biden, Warren and Mayor Pete, and Senator Bernie Sanders.
Next up on the Democratic primary calendar is Super Tuesday, where 15 states – including California, Texas, Maine, Virginia and Colorado – with about 40 percent of the Democratic delegates at stake. By this time, many of the democratic hopefuls will be out of money to fund a 15-state campaign on television – except for Bloomberg, who comes in heavy with a $100 million media buy to get out his message of competent government, standing up to the NRA, and being the guy who can defeat Trump.
The Super Tuesday strategy is what the Bloomberg campaign has drawn up. But here’s where I take it a different way that gets to the same result, the White House:
Democrats are unable to reach a consensus nominee by the time the Democratic Convention happens in Milwaukee in July. This results in a “brokered convention” with progressives winning the day and nominating Warren over a draft Hillary Clinton and a draft Michele Obama convention vote.
Now Bloomberg has to consider what a general election will look like with Warren as the Democratic nominee and Trump as the Republican nominee. Over the summer, a “draft Bloomberg as an independent for president movement” has resulted in Bloomberg being placed on the ballot in all 50 states as an independent, at a cost of $30 million.
Realizing that Warren cannot beat Trump, Bloomberg enters the race as an independent, and targets his appeal to the “Never Trumpers” who make up 10 percent of the electorate, moderate Democrats who feat Warren can’t beat Trump who make up 10 percent of the electorate, and 20 percent of the electorate who are independents who held their nose in 2016 and voted for Hillary or Trump. Add on another 5 percent who voted for Gary Johnson (this reporter) and Jill Stein in 2016, and you have the 35 percent needed to win a three-way race for president.
Bloomberg would also have the financial wherewithal to try and attract the more than 100 million American voters who didn’t vote for president in 2016. This group of untapped voters could give Bloomberg the presidency.
Suburban voters will be the key to a Bloomberg victory in 2020, with both Hillary and Trump getting 45 percent of their votes from the suburbs in 2016. That’s about 50 million votes Bloomberg can tap into – and he can start with suburban women who would listen to his message about bringing the country back to sanity, discussing the issues in the hopes of getting things done, and, most of all, getting guns off the streets of America.
Suburban voters have a vested interest in the American economy succeeding, through their 401Ks and through Wall Street. And while they see both of these economic indicators increasing under President Trump, they don’t see it continuing under Trump’s second term. They are fearful that one day, Trump will finally go too far and say or Tweet the final straw that will begin the spiral down for the American economy.
Suburban voters – more than most Americans – have “Trump fatigue” and want a return to political civility and normalcy, for their futures and the futures of their children. Michael Bloomberg is the calm, competence and reliability they want leading our country.
Is this an unreasonable political prediction? Perhaps. But it’s not as unreasonable as any other political scenario out there. As CNN commentator and Sirius XM Radio host Michael Smerconish likes to say, “We are in unchartered political waters like never before.” If that’s the case, why not Bloomberg in 2020? Crazier things have been predicted or suggested.
Before we return to the political realities of impeachment hearings by Democrats, and Ukraine interference and Hunter Biden coming from Republicans, let me take you back to the summer of 1992 – June 1992 to be exact – when a Gallup poll found 39 percent of Americans ready to vote for Ross Perot for president over George HW Bush (31 percent) and Bill Clinton (25 percent).
Twenty-eight years later, in 2020, we might be in that same political place, only with the name Bloomberg leading the polls.
