And Who Is Anthony Frascone?
Poll data from gbaostrategies.com
By Dan Murphy
A new poll by GBOstrategies.com, a democratic polling firm in Washington, shows the race for Congress between Rep. Mike Lawler and former Rep. Mondaire Jones narrowing to within the margin of error.
“The Sept. 20 poll had Lawler at 47% and Jones at 45%. Last month, Lawler held a 47%-40% lead over Jones.
GBO released their memo on this Congressional race, in the 17th District of NY-which includes most of Northern Westchester, Rockland, and Putnam Counties.
Their memo reads, “Recent polling in NY-17 shows Mike Lawler’s image deteriorating and the congressional race tightening to within the margin of error after just two weeks of Mondaire Jones’s ads contrasting him with Lawler on abortion and healthcare, compared to Lawler’s five weeks on air. This proves once again that NY-17 is a critical battleground to determining which party controls the House of Representatives after November.
“The following are key findings from August and September surveys of 500 likely general election voters in New York’s 17 th congressional district. Each survey carries a margin of error of +/-4.4 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence interval. The surveys were conducted between August 8-12 and September 15-18 of this year via phone and text-to-web.
“Key Findings
The congressional race in NY-17 has tightened, with Mondaire Jones closing in on Lawler. In August, Lawler held a 7-point lead over Mondaire Jones (47%to 40%), with 6% supporting Working Families Party candidate Anthony Frascone and 8% undecided. Our latest poll shows Jones closing the gap, now trailing Lawler by just 3 points (46% to 43%), with Frascone’s support at 5% and undecideds at 7%. The momentum is on Jones’s side. In a head-to-head matchup, the race tightens to a slim 2-point difference, 47% Lawler to 45% Jones. Polling often overstates 3rd party support until we get closer to Election Day.
Mike Lawler’s worsening image spells trouble for his reelection bid. Back in August, Lawler was +10 on favorability (43% favorable to 33% unfavorable). However, in our most recent poll conducted from September 15-18, his unfavorable rating jumped to 39%, while his favorable rating stalled at 44%, pointing to increasing concerns as voters become more aware of his record
Democrats hold a narrow motivation advantage. On a 0 to 10 scale, where 10 mean extremely motivated and 0 means not at all motivated, 85% of Democrats said they were extremely motivated (10) to vote in this election compared to 83% of Republicans saying the same. Based on party self-identification, Democrats compromise 35% of the electorate and Republicans make up 29% of the electorate.
Bottom Line: Lawler’s record, now under scrutiny, has moved the race to within the margin of error, but Democrats will need to continue the heavy investment we’ve seen over the last two weeks to keep the momentum going and put Jones in the lead,” end of memo.
”But there is a third-party candidate in this race. Anthony Frascone is running on the Working Families Party line, and if you include all three candidates (as we should) Frascone gets 5% and the numbers change to 46% for Lawler, 43% for Jones and 5% for Frascone.
Frascone won the WFP Primary over Jones in June, with 287 votes to 197 for Jones. Before the primary, the WFP rescinded its endorsement of Jones because Mondale endorsed George Latimer in the 16th CD Dem. primary instead of incumbent Squad member Jamaal Bowman. And, as one Progressive democrat posted, “So, that extremist and irresponsible move could cost the Dems a very valuable House seat
Usually, support for third party candidates shrinks as we get closer to election day. And if progressive democrats, and members of Indivisible Westchester in the district vote for Jones on Nov. 5, then Lawler could be in trouble. In 2022, 285,000 voters cast their vote for Lawler or Sean Patrick Maloney. Lawler won by 1820 votes.
If Frascone does get 5% of the vote in November, it could mean up to 14,000 votes. And most of these votes clearly go to Jones, or they stay home, or vote Harris for President and don’t vote for Congress.
Republican leaning pollster Larry Sabato views NY-17 differently. Shifting the race in Lawler’s favor in his Sabato’s Crystal Ball predictions, link (https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/five-house-ratings-changes-as-overall-battle-for-majority-remains-tight/)
“Last cycle, Rep. Mike Lawler (R, NY-17) pulled off an impressive upset of then-Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Sean Patrick Maloney in a district that extends north from Westchester County and that Joe Biden won 54%-44% in 2020. Lawler has generally won kudos for trying to carve out an independent image—a necessity for a Republican in a blue-leaning seat—and he has benefited from some modest but important developments, such as his Democratic opponent, former Rep. Mondaire Jones, losing the primary for the Working Families Party ballot line, which could cost Jones support that might otherwise have gone to him if he had that ballot line. Lawler is very likely leading in this race, and not just by a couple of points: A publicly released August poll from a Democratic sponsor had Lawler up 5 points, and Lawler may be up more than that. We doubt Lawler would actually win by a substantial margin, but we have seen and heard enough to believe that he’s a modest favorite.” Writes Sabato.
The Lawler campaign welcomed Sabato’s news. “Mondaire Jones’ campaign is starting to look a lot like the Titanic – an ill-fated ship doomed to sink in fantastic fashion,” said Lawler for Congress spokesman Chris Russell. “The ratings changes from Inside Elections and Sabato’s Crystal Ball confirm what everyone in the political world already knows – Mondaire Jones might just be the worst candidate for Congress in the country.”
“Between paying himself with small dollar donors’ cash, being caught supporting voting rights for imprisoned cop-killers and rapists and failing to be able to produce a single poll that shows him winning, it’s clear that Mondaire’s campaign is on life support,” concluded Russell. “And in just 47 days, Mondaire Jones and his campaign will be relegated to the dust heap of history.”
Editor’s Note: Regardless of Frascone’s politics, (some have speculated that he is a former republican, or a republican plant to take votes away from Jones), it is interesting how a total of 484 votes, in the Working Families Party primary, could play a major role on who wins a congressional seat that could determine who holds the House Majority in 2025.
Also, the poll conducted by GBOstrategies.com, was paid for by the Jones campaign. GBO is the Jones campaign’s pollster.
