Former Bill Clinton pollster Mark Penn wrote an Op-Ed for the NY Post that predicts Governor Kathy Hochul cannot win election in November. The May 12 prediction leaves the door open for Congressman Tom Suozzi, Hochul’s closest opponent, but also leans towards New York State electing the first republican governor since George Pataki in 2002.
“New York Democrats have a big problem unless they wake up to the governor’s primary. Gov. Kathy Hochul …has a job rating so low it makes President Joe Biden look good. So she may be leading in the primary but is a real vulnerability in the general election. She appears to be unelectable and will send the state right into Republican hands if she heads the ticket this fall,” writes Penn, who reviews some of the recent polling of Hochul’s job performace and top issues for New Yorkers.
Hochul’s job approval: 36% approve-57% disapprove. On crime 69% negative view of Hochul; On economy-63% negative view of Hochul.
Here’s the pull quote from the Op-Ed. “In 40 years of polling New York state elected officials, I can’t recall ratings this low for a governor. Even when Cuomo was in effect ousted he had better ratings than this.”
Penn says that New Yorkers have seen enough, and are turned off by Hochul’s performance. “When crime in the state escalated… she stood by idly, eventually proposing only modest reforms. On crime, she has been a follower not a leader.”
The recent arrest of Hochul’s Lt. Governor, Brian Benjamin, was another blow to Hochul’s re-election, according to Penn. “Every insider in New York knew he was under an ethical cloud, but Hochul promoted him to lieutenant governor anyway. She ignored all the warnings and just a day before his arrest defended him.”
The taxpayer funded building of a new stadium for the Buffalo Bills is another issue that New Yorkers don’t approve, “the most expensive deal in NFL history and one that benefits the Florida-based Bills owner. Voters oppose this boondoggle by 63% to 24% in the Siena poll,” writes Penn.
Penn writes favorably about Suozzi. “In a general election, he could run against the Albany corruption machine and has centrist positions on crime and taxes that would be hard for the Republican to beat, given the Democratic bent of the state. He is also strongly pro-choice.”
But then Penn warns, “If the winner (of the democratic primary) emerges with only a 37% job approval, it may well be a handover of the governorship to Republicans.”
Recent polling has Suozzi 25 points behind Hochul in a democratic primary, and Jumaane Williams even further behind. And the recent polling has all of Hochul’s problems baked in.
There are also a number of NY Democrats who want Suozzi out of the race, so that support for Hochul can be solidified for the upcoming June 23 primary.
