The Big 2020 Race in Westchester
By Dan Murphy
The biggest electoral contest in Westchester in 2020 will not be the race for president; look for Joe Biden, or Bernie Sanders – or whoever the democratic nominee will be – to easily defeat President Donald Trump in the county. In 2016, Trump lost Westchester to Hillary Clinton by more than a 2-1 margin, 65-31 percent, with 4 percent of the vote going to the Libertarian and Green parties.
This year’s most watched, and the election that both republicans and democrats in Westchester, and in Albany, want to win Nov. 4 will be the State Senate race between republican Rob Astorino and democratic incumbent State Sen. Peter Harckham.
Two weeks ago, we reported that Astorino was seriously considering challenging Harckham in the 40th District, which includes parts of northern Westchester, and then runs north to include parts of Putnam and Dutchess County. It also runs south from Yorktown to Mt. Pleasant in Westchester, where Astorino lives.
The further north you travel in the 40th district, the more republican it becomes. In 2016, the district voted for Trump over Clinton, and former State Sen. Terrence Murphy defeated democrat Ali Boak by 16 points, 58-42 percent. This fact gives Astorino hope for defeating Harckham.
Harckham narrowly defeated Murphy in 2018, 51-49 percent, in a gubernatorial year, with Gov. Andrew Cuomo trouncing republican Mark Molinaro, 60-36 percent, with 4 percent of the vote going to minor party candidates. Rising newspapers has also learned that the state GOP was also recruiting Murphy to run against Harckham in a rematch this year but he declined, or deferred to Astorino.
Astorino served as Westchester County executive for eight years, from 2009 to 2017, before being defeated by County Executive George Latimer. Since then he has worked as an analyst for CNN, for a New York City law firm, and for the Archdiocese of New York.
Astorino also lost a statewide race for governor in 2014 to Cuomo. Both of Astorino’s recent election losses, to Cuomo and Latimer, were by a 14-point margin, making some wonder if that “Astorino magic” that got him elected twice in “deep blue” Westchester as a republican can be recaptured.
A former Westchester republican who worked with Astorino said: “Running this race in a presidential year brings back all of the Trumparino talk, and you know that the mailings with Rob and Trump next to each other are already printed. Plus, if Rob were to lose again this time, it’s over – three strikes and you’re out.”
But most republicans we spoke to in northern Westchester and Putnam County were excited by Astorino’s candidacy. “Democrats went too far with bail reform, and the voters up here don’t want it,” said a Yorktown republican. “Astorino is the best republican we have in Westchester, so I’m glad he’s running. It won’t be easy to beat Harckham, but I look forward to the fight.”
A Putnam County republican and former elected official said: “I think a lot of Putnam residents are voting for Trump, regardless of party. Trump helps Astorino in Putnam and Dutchess and I think that if Astorino wins this seat, then other Senate seats can be had and you never know – if it’s a tidal wave against bail reform and for Trump, the republicans could retake the majority.”
Democrats currently hold a 40-22-1 (vacant) majority in the State Senate. A GOP landslide would have to occur for a flip to happen, and would start on Long Island, where five Senate seats are in play. If you also include the Astorino-Harckham race, and throw in three more upstate, a perfect storm would have to happen to force Westchester’s Senate majority leader, democrat Andrea Stewart-Cousins, out of power. But, for the first time in four years, republicans are hopeful that Astorino and the GOP can capitalize on issues like bail reform that can help them take back a seat like the 40th district.
On the other side of the aisle, democrats are also ready for the return of Astorino and ready to win in November and put an end to his political career.
The Democratic State Senate Committee wrote a letter to Astorino “welcoming” him to the race:
“Dear Rob, We were so excited to hear that you’re interested in running for State Senate after your embarrassing 14-point loss as a failed candidate for county executive. Don’t let that deter you, though, Westchester voters were probably just perturbed that you were being investigated for corruption.
“Did the FBI ever give you back that Rolex you took as a bribe? How do you plan on telling Putnam voters about your history of corruption? Talk about an awkward first introduction.
“Again, don’t let that stop you from running – you’ve probably made a lot of fans back home defending Trump’s corrupt ally Paul Manafort on CNN. You do have a lot in common. But seriously, Rob, what’s taking you so long to run?
“You were already rejected by voters in losing races for county executive and governor, and couldn’t get enough support to run for Congress, so let’s do this! Hopefully we’ll see you out on the campaign trail soon!
“Sincerely, the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee.”
One correction to the letter: From what we hear, Astorino easily could have run for Congress, for Nita Lowey’s old seat, if he wanted to. He wisely passed on that race because of its overwhelmingly democratic enrollment edge, and the fact that a republican hasn’t won that seat from Lowey in more than 30 years.
The fact that the DSCC wrote this letter and gave it to the media is an indication that Astorino is a serious candidate and that Democrats want to hold the seat, and help Harckham do it. For those of us in the district, be prepared for a barrage of media advertisements in every form – television, mail, social media, airplane, drone, etc.
Astorino brings to the race a campaign war chest, left over from his race for governor, of $800,000. Democrats will likely try to match Astorino and the New York GOP dollar for dollar in this contest, which could be another $5 million State Senate race. Former State Sen. George Latimer defeated republican Bob Cohen by a 55-45 percent margin back in 2012 in the last $5 million Senate race, with Cohen outspending Latimer 2-1, but still losing.
It is also unclear whether Astorino will be willing to spend it all on this Senate race. He will likely serve as a member of the GOP State Senate minority if he were to win, but some see even that as an opportunity. “Rob could immediately become the State Senate minority leader if he were to win,” said a friend and supporter of Astorino. “That puts him in place for another statewide run, which is what he wants to do again.”
Another Westchester democrat, who at first could not understand why Astorino would want to give up his job at CNN and his other private positions to run again, said: “Peter (Harckham) is in for the campaign of his life. Rob’s biggest challenge will be his good friend Donald Trump. But if there are any republicans left in Westchester and in New York, that’s where they are.
“I give Rob credit, even though I don’t agree with him on every issue,” said this Sound Shore Democrat. “He’s a tough competitor and even though he is a conservative, he comes off like a smooth-talking moderate, who is fluid in Spanish. He is tough, and it took someone like George Latimer to beat him, who is as tough and could beat him in retail politics.”
Very few political races down-ballot create the type of excitement this race already has. Stay tuned.
