Polls Show a 10-point lead in GOP Primary, and a Hochul -Giuliani November Election
By Dan Murphy
Respected NY pollster John Zogby released a poll on May 26 that found Andrew Giuliani, republican canddiate for Governor with a 10 point lead over Congressman Lee Zeldin, the endorsed candidate of the NY GOP. The Zogby/UniteNY poll also found Governor Kathy Hochul with a comfortable lead in the democratic primary, and with a 58% favorable opinion rating overall.
This marks the third consecutive poll Giuliani has led the field and coincides with a consistent decline in performance from Zeldin, who has recently been on the receiving end of a negative TV ad campaign by Harry Wilson, one of the two other GOP candidates for Governor. The Zogby-UniteNY poll has Giuliani ahead 35% to 25% over Zeldin, with the 2014 GOP candidate for Governor and former Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino competitive at 17%, and Wilson at 12%, with 11% still undecided.
Zogy called the results “stunning” in his press release about the poll, taken in mid-May. This is the fourth in a series of monthly polls by Unite NY and John Zogby Strategies. The 408 likely GOP primary voters poll has a margin-of-sampling error of +/-5.0 percentage points.
The major takeaway from this poll is why has the media not taken Andrew Giuliani and his campaign for NY Governor seriously? Especially considering three polls from reputable companies that find him leading the republican field?
Jeremy Zogby, Partner John Zogby Strategies, told us, “The name Giuliani carries a lot of weight among Conservatives in NYS. They should be taking Andrew seriously because for the last 4 months we’ve had him neck and neck with Zeldin, and most recently he has pulled ahead.
Zogby also said that national trends across the country supporting MAGA-Trump candidates should be considered among republicans and conservatives in New York. “Consider the national trend of MAGA 2.0. Virginia flipped in November (for Governor). JD Vance won the GOP primary in Ohio (for US Senate). In Pennsylvania, Oz (endorsed by Trump) and Barnett (whose campaign utilized the Trump blueprint for messaging) comprised over half the vote in the GOP primary (for US Senate).
“I think people are not seeing this in its national context. MAGA is alive and well in NYS,” said Jeremy Zogby, who added in his release that “insurgents in primaries often defeat officially-designated candidates.”
The other obvious takeaway is that the Giuliani name still matters in conservative and republican circles across the state. “In a state where Giuliani’s lead is defined by strong support over Zeldin among self-defined “very conservative” GOP voters (41%-31%), voters in New York City (51%-13%), in New York City suburbs (36%-30%), 18-29-year-olds (51% to Wilson’s 18%), 30-49year-olds (36%-29%), 50-64-year-olds (40%-24%), men (37%-24%) and women (32%-27%),” writes Zogby.
Zeldin has also begun to run TV and radio ads in an attempt to contrast his image from the Wilson ads, that have carpeted cable TV and YouTube. Giuliani has recently campaigned with his father, and both Giuliani’s remain loyal to former President Trump.
The other takeaway from the Zogby/UniteNY poll is how Governor Kathy Hochul is pulling away from the field of democratic candidates and now has a 58% favorable rating among New Yorkers. She leads all of her potential Republican challengers by double-digits and is polling well over 50%. None of her democratic challengers reaches 40% in those matchups.
The poll founds likely democratic voters, and leaning democratic voters favoring Hochul, with 54%. Next is Jumaane Williams, at 17%, Tom Suozzi at 10%, and Paul Nichols at 7%, with 10% undecided.
The resignation of Hochul’s former Lieutenant Governor Brian Benjamin on corruption charges has not impacted Hochul’s number, in fact, just the opposite, with 34% saying that the choice of Antonio Delgado as the new Lt. Gov. will make them more likely to support Hochul’s election, 17% less likely, and 42% say it will make no difference. However, 54% of Hispanics and 53% of blacks are more likely to support the ticket.
The top issues for New York voters are crime and public safety (47%) and taxes and the economy (38%). Of those who say they are planning to leave, more than half (52%) are planning on doing so within the next 1-3 years.
Unite NY Founder Martin Babinec said, “Unite NY has spent the last 5 months measuring voter attitudes and the picture is crystal clear, voters have had enough. They believe the state is on the wrong track, they are ready to leave, and our current Governor’s disapproval rating continues to climb. Part of the reason why is that the average voter is clearly embracing reforms that are being rejected by those that are in power and want to keep it. The candidates that hear this message and openly advocate reform will be the ones that have the best chance to capture so many voters who want to see leaders ready to fix the broken system now.”
John Zogby, Founder and Senior Partner, Zogby Strategies said, “It would seem that Republicans have a golden opportunity to perform well in November. But thus far, Governor Hochul is in the drivers’ seat and the election is hers to lose. First, the GOP will have to unite then produce a compelling message that convinces they can do a better job. They are not there yet.”
