McLaughlin Poll has Zeldin +23; Last Week Zogby Poll had Giuliani Up? What Gives?
Congressman Zeldin Maintains Massive Lead Over GOP Primary Field
A new statewide survey of 600 likely Republican primary election voters in New York, taken May 24-25, 2022, found Congressman Lee Zeldin (R, NY-1), the Republican Party and Conservative Party designee for Governor, holding a massive 23 point lead over the field.
“Getting into this race over a year ago, we’ve brought our mission to Save Our State to every corner of New York over and over again, earning the support of everyday New Yorkers who strongly agree that Kathy Hochul has got to go, and balance must be restored to our state capital,” said Congressman Zeldin. “It is physically impossible to outwork me. We have the issues on our side, and clearly the greatest amount of grassroots support. After 7 consecutive wins in purple districts, taking out two incumbent Democrats along the way, we are looking forward to keeping the win streak alive with a big win in the Republican Party primary June 28th, and then again in the general election November 8th, when we send Kathy Hochul packing. To secure our streets, make life more affordable, and save New York, winning is the only option.”
Since 2010, Congressman Zeldin has won 7 consecutive races in purple New York City suburban districts, including a primary by over 20 points despite over $4 million spent against him. He flipped a State Senate seat in 2010 that was held by a Democrat incumbent whose family held office in that area for thirty years and then flipped a House seat in 2014 that was held by a Democrat for the prior twelve years.
McLaughlin & Associates, which has always served as Congressman Zeldin’s pollster with precise, consistent accuracy for every one of his campaigns, completed the statewide survey of 600 likely Republican primary election voters in New York State.
McLaughlin & Associates has decades of experience polling in New York and, in 2021, did the polling for the upset victories of Nassau County District Attorney Anne Donnelly, Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman and the Conservative Party victories to defeat statewide Propositions 1, 3 and 4.
Topline Survey Results:
- On a head-to-head ballot, Zeldin currently leads by 23-points to his next closest potential competitor:
- Zeldin 41%
- Giuliani 18%
- Astorino 17%
- Wilson 13%
- 12% undecided
- Hochul has an 84% disapproval rating
- Economic issues are the primary concern at 38% of the total open-ended issue question: taxes 16%, the economy in general 12%, inflation at 8%, cost of living at 2%.
- Crime and safety issues account for 33% of the total as a grouping. “Crime” is the #1 single, stand-alone issue at 19%.
This survey conducted by McLaughlin & Associates was among registered Republicans who are likely primary voters. All respondents have a history of having voted in Republican primary elections, or who are newly registered and self-identify as planning to vote in the June 28th Republican primary election.
This in contrast to other publicly released polls that were based on a less reliable online-panel. Those polls do not correctly screen for likely voters, nor can they verify a history of having voted in past Republican primary elections.
Methodology: This New York Statewide survey of Likely Republican Primary election voters was conducted among 600 likely primary voters between May 24 – May 25, 2022.
A multi-modal approach was employed via live telephone calls and self-administered text messages. The live telephone interviews were conducted by professional interviewers with respondents contacted by both landline phone and cell phone. The text message respondents were sent a personalized invitation to complete the survey on a secure online platform. Interview selection was random and interviews were stratified by county, region, race/ethnicity, age, and gender, to correlate with actual voter turnout from previous even-year Republican primary elections.
Thirty-three percent (33%) of interviews were completed on traditional landlines, 33% were conducted on cell-phones and 33% of interviews were conducted via text message, which linked to a secure online platform.
These samples were then combined and structured to correlate with actual voter turnout in a Republican primary election. This poll of 600 likely Republican primary election voters in New York State has an accuracy of +/- 4.0% at a 95% confidence interval.
Last week, a Zogby Poll had Andrew Giuliani ahead of Zeldin among NY republicans. It is both strange and confusing that two polls conducted by two reliable polling firms came up with such different results. The only difference between the two polls is that the Zeldin campaign paid for the McLaughlin poll.
