Can Republicans Win in Westchester With Prop One and Trump on the Ballot?
State Senate candidate Gina Arena casting her vote
By Dan Murphy
The question that Westchester voters will answer on Nov. 5 is what issues they prioritize, and are they better off than they were two or four years ago?
2024 is a Presidential year, and turnout is usually higher than off-year elections. Early voting numbers so far indicate that more Westchester voters are casting ballots.
In 2020, President Biden defeated former President Trump by a 68%-32% advantage. A 36-point margin makes it very difficult for down-ballot Republicans to win their elections for State Senate and Assembly.
Most believe that Trump will do better in Westchester this year. But how much better? And will Vice-President Harris get fewer votes in Westchester than Biden did?
Two other factors will impact Westchester voters next week. Proposition One is on the ballot for a yes or no vote. We detail the arguments for and against Prop One inside.
If Democrats statewide vote for Harris as they did for Biden in 2020 (62%-Biden-38% Trump), will they also vote yes for Prop One? Or has the outcry to Save Women’s Sports become so loud that some NY Dems and independent voters may vote for Harris but not Prop One?
The race for Congress in NY-17, here in Westchester, Rockland, Putnam, and Dutchess counties, between Congressman Mike Lawler and former Congressman Mondaire Jones, will be watched across the country on election night.
The presidential race will also impact this contest. In 2020, Biden won this congressional District by 10 points. Lawler was elected two years ago by less than one point. If Harris wins in NY-17, can Lawler also win?
And which narrative will win the day? Residents in the District have been bombarded in this District with way too many TV ads and mailings, with the republican spin that Jones is tied at the hip to AOC and that Jones said he would defund the police four years ago. Or the democratic spin about Lawler’s pro-life views on abortion?
The latest Emerson Poll has Lawler with 49%-Jones at 44% and a third candidate, Anthony Frascone, at 1%, with 7% still undecided.
Some Westchester Races for State Senate and Assembly to Watch:
I-State Senate-District-40-Democrat-Sen. Pete Harckham vs Republican Gina Arena. If Republicans were to win one local race on Nov. 5, most politicos predict a win for Gina Arena. This is a rematch between the two, with Harckham winning by 53%-47% two years ago. This year, Arena and many local republican candidates for senate and Assembly have matching funds due to a recently passed law that most New Yorkers don’t know about.
Arena hopes to ride the wave to Save Women’s Sports and oppose Proposition One. There is also opposition in this senate district to a massive Lithium Battery farm proposed on the Westchester-Putnam border. The Arena has the support of opponents of the battery farm.
Arena has also highlighted another issue concerning Carmel School Board member Jim Wise. Wise has frequently used the phrase “From the River to the Sea” at School Board meetings.
“From the river to the sea, Palestine will be free” is an antisemitic slogan commonly featured in anti-Israel campaigns and chanted at demonstrations. Usage of this phrase has the effect of making members of the Jewish and pro-Israel community feel unsafe and ostracized,” writes the Anti-Defamation League.
Harckham honored Wise for his efforts on LGBTQ issues, but once Wise’s comments were made public, Harckham was called on to disavow them, but in our view, he didn’t do enough to repudiate antisemitic speech.
Another race to watch is in Yonkers, where Assemblyman Nader Sayegh faces a tough challenge from Republican John Isaac in the 90th District. Two years ago, Sayegh won reelection by a narrow 52%-48% margin.
Two years later, are there enough dissatisfied Yonkers voters to tip the balance to Sayegh? Or, in a Presidential year, will Sayegh ride the coattails of Harris as Yonkers democrats vote straight D down the ticket?
Two Westchester Democrats are not expected to have a close election. Democrat County Executive George Latimer is running for Congress in NY-16, Westchester’s other congressional District. He is running against Dr. Miriam Levitt-Flisser. Flisser lost two years ago to Jamaal Bowman by a 64%-36% margin.
Democrat Tricia Lindsay is challenging state Senator Shelley Mayer.
The campaign of Alessandro Crocco, running for Assembly in the 92nd District against Democrat Assemblymember MaryJane Shimsky, is an example of the efforts of Westchester Republicans to run active races in almost all of the senate and assembly contests in Westchester this year.
Crocco is running on many of his fellow Republican candidates’ campaign themes, including opposition to Proposition One and crime and bail reform.
However, another issue may affect the outcome in the 92nd District, which includes Greenburgh. Some residents of Edgemont in the Town of Greenburgh are attempting to secede from the Town.
Edgemont residents make up the most affluent portion of Greenburgh, and many have raised their opposition to the plan and its financial impacts on the Town’s budget.
Crocco said, “I rise in opposition to the secession of Edgemont –something that is only possible thanks to a series of legislation conceived and passed by our current representative in Albany– because it is not in the best interest of the majority of families in Greenburgh, and it is not morally the right thing to do.”
Crocco has actively campaigned across the District. He has an active social media and is an articulate candidate.
The overwhelming registration edge for democrats makes this race difficult for Crocco to win, but how will voters, not only in Greenburgh but across Westchester, cast their votes on Nov. 5?
There are also five seats on the NYS Supreme Cout in the 9th Judicial District, including Westchester.
Brett Boge, Judge Colleen Duffy, Judge Mary Ann Scattaretico-Naber, Kyle McGovern, and Rachel Tanguay are the Democratic and conservative candidates. Mark Starkman, Karen Ostberg, Edward Mevec, Thomas Humbach, and Leslie Kahn are the Republicans.
Regardless of the outcome, I would encourage everyone to wait for all of the votes to be counted and respect the voters’ decision.
The Westchester League of Women Voters allows all residents to view their ballot in their community. Visit https://lwvw.org/2024/08/voter-information-for-2024-general-election/ to view your ballot.
