By Dan Murphy
The night before Election Day is usually a busy last day of campaigning and reaching out to voters for both democrats and republicans here in Westchester – and across the country. But on Nov. 5, a prominent political landmark in White Plains was dark.
The Westchester Republican headquarters, located in the middle of the county’s capital in a white house, was the location for many a victory party over the past 50 years. But on election night 2018, there were no volunteers – nobody making any last-minute calls – mostly because there were mainly blank spaces on the ballots for republican candidates for many state and federal offices in Westchester this year.
John Nuculovic, Joe Ciardullo and Joe Pinion were three republicans who stepped forward to run for Assembly and Congress in Westchester districts that are now overwhelmingly democratic. At least they stepped forward to run and put a name on the ballot for the voters to consider.
The two 2018 election contests in Westchester that were competitive for republicans were in northern Westchester, where GOP incumbents State Sen. Terrence Murphy and Assemblyman Kevin Byrne ran for re-election.
Murphy had never faced a serious, well-financed opponent in his prior two election victories, including in 2016, with Donald Trump on the ballot above him, when Murphy won re-election by 10 pints.
But since 2016, Westchester has become a different, more difficult place for republicans to compete and win elections in. Former County Executive Rob Astorino knew it as early as the spring of 2017 when he started telling friends and supporters that his re-election was not a sure thing.
Astorino’s 14-point loss to George Latimer in 2017 for county executive, and in Yonkers, former Council President Liam McLaughlin’s eight-point loss to democrat Mike Khader, were bad omens for republicans and for Murphy heading into 2018.
All of the enthusiasm, and energy, continued to be with progressive, indivisible democrats, who joined democrat Shelley Mayer’s State Senate campaign in the spring of 2018. Mayer’s 10-point victory over republican Julie Killian was not a surprise to many, but when republicans in Westchester and Albany decided not to challenge Mayer again in November 2018, and leave their line empty in the 37th Senate District – a district carved out for a republican to win, it was a signal another bad sign that the Westchester GOP was raising the white flag over large portions of the county.
Voter registration data from the Board of Elections show new voters registering as democrats in overwhelming numbers. In Westchester, 8,000 new democrats registered since April, with 5,000 new voters with no party affiliation, and 1,000 fewer republicans registered.
Murphy lost to Pete Harckham by 2,000 votes. Those 2,000 votes could have come from new registered voters into the 40th District. The Murphy campaign remained confident that they could reach their target number of voters and win re-election. But when more voters came out than in past elections and those new voters went democrat in large numbers, it meant the end for Murphy and for a republican majority in the State Senate.
Democrats in Westchester got it right when they commented after the election that Harckham was the first real opponent Murphy had. In fact, Harckham’s campaign against Murphy, focused on one topic – the same topic that brought Latimer and Mayer to victory and brought democrats out in droves to vote and rally and volunteer across Westchester: opposition to President Donald Trump.
When Harckham finally got the resources he needed to compete and respond to Murphy’s negative attacks against him, he mailed out the photo of Murphy with Trump back in 2016, and that photo – without any shadow of a doubt – gave Harckham the 2,000 votes he needed to win.
There is a dispute, and a good argument within republican circles, over the Trump impact on recent Westchester elections. For us, there is no argument. President Donald Trump is killing the Westchester Republican Party, which was already in decline over the last decade. But that decline was shaded over by Astorino’s victories in 2009 and 2013, and Astorino’s ability to form a bipartisan majority on the County Board.
Can anyone believe it was just more than a year ago when Astorino and the coalition on the BOL operated Westchester government? Doesn’t it seem like five years ago?
John Tomlin, former deputy chief of staff to Senate Majority Leader-elect Andrea Stewart-Cousins, wrote an op-ed the day before the election. Tomlin is a democrat but he tells it like it is.
“It’s not just Trump’s damage to their brand and his horrible poll numbers that haunt them,” he said. “It’s not even the measurable enthusiasm among New York Democrats. For the first time in recent memory, Senate Republicans are defending more seats across the state than they are contesting. Five of their members retired this year, one of them didn’t even wait until the end of session to do it. Several more are in swing districts and all those seats have strong Democratic candidates running in them.
“Also consider that Senate Democrats represent every diverse region and demographic in our state, whether it’s upstate, downstate, urban, suburban, rural, Latino, African-American, LGBT – you name it. For every young first-time elected official, there is a well-respected legislator who has devoted a long career to public service. They are a conference that resembles our state in every fashion.
“And with Andrea Stewart-Cousins at the helm, the Senate Democrats will shift the leadership paradigm in New York,” continued Tomlin. “In six years as leader, she’s restored confidence in Senate Democrats, fought a multi-front war to win a majority and blazed a trail for women in male-dominated Albany.
“So, as long as Democratic candidates promote equality, progress and opportunity, I like their chances to win. Republicans, for their part, will keep telling people to be scared of Democrats. It’s not a winning message. It’s tone deaf and out of touch, like handing out celery to trick-or-treaters,” concluded Tomlin, who got it right in his reference to the republican message of scaring the voter about democrats, which can be associated with the republican’s negative message about republicans in Westchester.
Astorino attacked Latimer for not paying his property taxes in Rye and nobody cared. McLaughlin attached Khader in Yonkers for outstanding credit card bills, and nobody cared. Murphy attacked Harckham for his association to Joe Percoco, and nobody cared. When faced with a choice of caring about Percoco or voting against Trump, it’s no contest in Westchester.
The Westchester GOP needs to run candidates for every state office (Assembly and Senate) and for Congress. They don’t have to find candidates who will spend $50,000 to run, just a name on the ballot with a narrative will work for now. The GOP also needs to embrace new candidates like Sarmad Khojesteh, who was interested in the Mayer State Senate race.
If they do all of the above, it still may not be enough. The party may be over for the GOP here in Westchester. When your candidate for governor is losing by 22 points across the state and 30 points here in Westchester, it’s tough to win any races down ballot. And every two years it’s a presidential race on top and then a governor’s race, giving republicans no respite. Perhaps a third party can become the alternative party in Westchester and in New York State.
But anyone wondering who has the enthusiasm can only look to a rally outside of the county building in White Plains two days after Election Day, when a large crowd of progressives and indivisible members showed up to protest the notion that acting Attorney General Matt Whitaker could remove Robert Mueller. Compare that to the lights off in the Westchester GOP headquarters on election eve.
Note to Doug Colety: Turn the lights back on.
