By Anthony Sarro
If you think the U.S. housing market is one giant wave lifting every home, think again. Today, it looks more like a crowded marina: some boats are racing ahead, some are stuck at the dock, and a few are quietly taking on water. For decades, Americans believed in a simple rule — when the economy grew, home prices rose everywhere. Appreciation rates varied, but nearly all markets moved in the same direction. That logic no longer holds. National housing data still shows modest gains of roughly 2–3 percent year over year. But those averages conceal sharp regional differences that matter deeply to homeowners, buyers, and policymakers. Markets with limited supply, stable employment, and relative affordability continue to rise. Markets that surged during the pandemic, fueled by cheap money and migration, are now correcting as higher interest rates collide with stretched affordability and rising inventory.
Recent price trends illustrate the split clearly:
New York City Metro: +8%
Trenton, NJ: +9–10%
Lansing, MI: +9–10%
Miami, FL: –3–4% from peak
Austin, TX: –5–6%
Tampa, FL: –5–6%
San Francisco, CA: Below 2022 peak
Phoenix, AZ: Below 2022 peak
Dallas, TX: Below 2022 peak
National Average: +2–3%
In the Northeast and parts of the Midwest, constrained inventory continues to support prices. In contrast, markets that experienced explosive pandemic-era growth are adjusting as demand cools and supply normalizes. The takeaway is simple: housing is local again. Migration patterns, inventory levels, financing costs, and job concentration now matter more than national economic growth. A strong economy no longer guarantees rising prices everywhere.
The old saying that “a rising tide raises all boats” no longer applies. Some boats are rising, others are steady, and a few are sinking. The era of synchronized appreciation is over. The U.S. housing market is no longer one tide — it’s a marina full of boats navigating very different currents.
Anthony Sarro NYS & Federally Certified Appraiser –30 + yrs of experience www.AnthonySarroAdvisory.com
