Harris Also Leads by 12 points with 3rd Party Candidates Included
Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump 53-39% among likely New York State voters, the first time the Siena College poll has included Harris in a horserace against Trump. In late June Trump trailed President Joe Biden by a narrower 47-39%. In a six-way election horserace, Harris leads Trump 49-37%, with seven percent for Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and four percent for the other three minor party candidates, according to a Siena College poll of New York State likely voters released on August 6.
Harris has a 53-43% favorability rating, up from 42-47% in October 2023.
Voters strongly support the proposed constitutional amendment on November’s ballot, called the Equal Rights Amendment, 68-23%.
“The landscape has changed since the last Siena College poll. The change at the top of the Democratic ticket has had a noticeable, while not dramatic, effect on the horse race. Harris has the support of 86% of Democrats, up from the 75% support Biden had in June. And while independent voters support Trump over Harris 47-40%, they supported Trump over Biden 45-28%,” Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg said. “Harris leads with Black voters 81-11%, up from Biden’s 59-29% lead in June.
“The gender gap has widened with Harris replacing Biden. Currently Harris leads with women by 34 points, 64-30%, up from Biden’s 51-33%, or 18-point lead. The race moved far less with men, who favor Trump over Harris 49-43%, compared to the 46-42% lead men gave Trump in June,” Greenberg said. “Interestingly, it wasn’t young voters that moved the needle. Among voters under 35, Harris leads 49-34%, down a little from the 51-32% lead Biden had in June. Harris’ big pickup was among voters 35-54, who favor her 54-40%, after backing Trump 44-41% over Biden in June.
“Among all the presidential candidates that are likely to be on New York’s ballot, Harris is the only one with a positive favorability rating,” Greenberg said. “And looking at the race if it is a six-way election, Harris’ lead falls slightly from 14 points to 12 points. At the moment, 11% of voters – and 19% of independents – say they will vote for a minor party candidate.
“Voters think that Harris is prepared to be President for four years, 58-42%, and more narrowly, 51-48%, they say Trump is prepared. Not surprisingly, 88% of Democrats say Harris is prepared and 88% of Republicans say she is not. However, while 94% of Republicans say Trump is prepared, even one-quarter of Democrats concede he is prepared,” Greenberg said. “Independents say Trump is prepared, 61-38%, but Harris is not prepared, 52-46%.”
Voters Support Proposed Constitutional Amendment Called ERA on November’s Ballot 3-to-1 “Democrats support New York’s so-called ERA amendment – which adds anti-discrimination provisions to the State Constitution and protects abortion rights – by an overwhelming 89-7%. Independents support it 64-23%. Republicans oppose the amendment, 55 32%,” Greenberg said. “While men support the amendment 56-31%, it is supported by women 79-15%. It is strongly supported in every region, and with white, Black and Latino voters.”
This Siena College Poll was conducted July 28–August 1, 2024, among 1,199 likely voters in New York. For survey crosstabs: www.Siena.edu/SCRI/SNY.
