Did the son get a free pass to re-election?
By Dan Murphy
In the summer of 2019, rumors were running around political circles in Yonkers that County Legislator David Tubiolo was going to switch parties from republican to democrat. This was despite the fact that his father, Justin Tubiolo, was the Republican Party chairman in Yonkers and was telling people that David would never switch parties.
Legislator Tubiolo was holding fundraisers with his longtime republican friends in Yonkers and was using the party to collect signatures to get on the ballot and run in 2019, as a republican.
Now that Legislator Tubiolo has left the GOP as of last week, the rumblings were indeed true, and according to friends of Justin Tubiolo and his wife, Barbara, both are heartbroken that their son is now a democrat.
But another interesting fact materialized from the election of 2019, and the county board race in the 14th district. Republican legislator Tubiolo did not have a democratic opponent, despite the fact that there were democrats interested in running.
Democrats and Republicans in Yonkers are now wondering out loud: Was there a quid pro quo that gave Legislator Tubiolo a free pass to re-election? There are different scenarios that some Yonkers political insiders believed happened to ensure Legislator Tubiolo’s re-election last year.
One scenario had Justin Tubiolo getting a non-aggression pact for his son in exchange for David switching parties the following year. The problem with this scenario is that Justin is said to have always objected to David switching parties and that democrats in Yonkers got very little in return for giving David a pass. As one Yonkers democrat told us, David was going to switch anyway, so why do it?
While there were several county board races in which the democrat ran without republican opposition, Tubiolo and Legislator Margaret Cunzio, a conservative, ran unopposed. Many believe both Tubiolo and Cunzio were vulnerable to losing their re-elections if a democrat was encouraged to run.
Enrollment numbers in Westchester continue to show a continued decline for republican registrations and an increase in democratic and independent registrations. Countywide, democrats hold an almost 3-1 advantage, with 296,049 democrats to 125,070 republicans, and 149,000 independents, or those not registered to any party.
A recent switch in enrollment in the Town of Eastchester gives democrats an enrollment edge, but republicans still control town government, while the Town of Somers is the only Westchester town with more republicans than democrats.
But if there are 125,070 registered republicans in Westchester County, how come there is only 1 remaining conservative left on the county board? And why has the republican party in Westchester seen such a decline?
While the official leader of the Westchester Republican Party is Chairman Doug Colety, the one person in Westchester who speaks eloquently about the republican decline and the need for a two-party system and an alternative when we go to the polls is journalist Phil Reisman.
Reisman, the former dean of reporters in Westchester for LoHud, can now be heard on WVOX Radio every Thursday at noon, and on Facebook, and is featured in Westchester Magazine. Last week, Reisman had Yonkers Republican City Councilman Anthony Merante on his radio show.
Merante and Reisman agreed that republicans in Yonkers and Westchester need to stand up and try and reclaim the GOP flag in the county.
“Merante says his party is in ‘shambles’ and shrinking at an alarming rate, a condition caused by poor leadership,” writes Reisman on Facebook. “The evidence of decay, he says, includes an embarrassing string of election losses in recent years and the capitulation of some Republicans who, out of self-preservation (allegedly), have abandoned ship and joined the Democrats. (David) Tubiolo happens to be the son of Yonkers City GOP Chairman Justin Tubiolo. Merante blames the elder Tubiolo for his son’s party switching – and has called for his resignation.”
Merante represents most of the 35 percent of Yonkers republicans who want to fight democrats, progressives and independents in their city and in Westchester County. The problem is that there is 55 percent of the electorate in Yonkers and Westchester that vote Democrat every day and twice on Sunday (the remaining 10 percent are independent who can support either party, depending on the candidate).
There is another segment of the Yonkers Republican Party who believes it is best to try and support and endorse a moderate Democrat sometimes, instead of ending up with an AOC-type running the City of Yonkers. That was the case in 2019, and in 2015, when Mayor Mike Spano was re-elected twice by large margins that included republican support.
Now, Reisman, a Yonkers resident, will tell you the reason Spano was so easily re-elected was because of the weak candidates that republicans put up (Bill Nuckel in 2015 and Mario De Giorgio last year). But the fact is that Yonkers republicans and Westchester republicans in many communities cannot find candidates willing to come forward and run, as a long shot, against democratic incumbents.
There is also a continuing debate among Westchester republicans on whether President Donald Trump is to blame for the republican slide in the county. Political consultant Mike Edelman, who worked on many Westchester elections before moving to Florida, posted on Facebook: “Let’s understand what the effect of Rob Astorino courting Donald Trump had on voters in the county of Westchester. In his attempt to run for governor a second time, he hosted pro-Trump radio shows on WOR, appeared on TV in defense of Trump, and pandered to the conservative party in order to leverage the Republican nomination for governor, which is one of the unfortunate side effects of allowing cross endorsements in New York State. Interestingly at the same time Rob was getting crushed in Westchester, Ed Day, also a Republican in Rockland County, was winning re-election…
“Westchester voters of all stripes have rejected Trumpism in all its virulent forms… They have also rejected phony budget maneuvers to make it appear that county taxes were being held at bay… a tactic that backfired since most people are now aware that the portion of your taxes that are under control of the county pale in comparison to the portion paid in local and school property taxes… As for switching parties, numerous politicians have done it over the years including a former D.A. and several judges… And here is the stark political reality, local politics is not about ideology, it’s about doing the job and doing it well… Once registration is so far out of whack that there is absolutely no chance of winning as a Republican, why remain in a party that is out of business… and who is led by an unfit, unhinged, unserious, uneducated, unremorseful and uninterested president?” writes Edelman.
If you believe Edelman’s theory, then if Astorino didn’t support and talk about Trump, he would have won re-election in 2017. But Astorino lost to County Executive George Latimer by 14 points, with most of that margin attributed to the Trump effect.
Others believe, including this reporter, that Astorino’s successes in 2009 and 2013, winning the County Executive’s race in blue Westchester, helped overshadow the problems that already existed in the Westchester GOP in recruiting candidates and enrollment numbers.
Those problems were exasperated with the election of Trump in 2016, and the outrage against him in Westchester by more than 60 percent of the electorate. That reality, in my view, would have been in place with Doug Coley as Westchester GOP chairman, and Justin Tubiolo as Yonkers GOP chairman, or if someone else were republican chairpersons.
But Merante, Reisman and the remaining 35 percent of republican-conservatives in Westchester have the right to make one last stand, and elect leaders who will present an ideology that supports bail for repeat criminal offenders, deportation of those living in our country illegally, and opposition to legalizing marijuana.
If republican candidates can be found, and republican dollars can be raised, it’s worth a shot, albeit a long shot. There are very few republicans who can excite their base enough to come out and volunteer and support their candidates. And there are democrats like State Sen Shelley Mayer who will run without opposition this year because she can’t be beat. I would place Latimer in that category, if, as expected, he runs again in 2021.
But just when all republican hopes were dashed in Westchester, a possible return is coming for the county GOP. And his name is Rob Astorino. He still has the “bug” of public service, and wants to run again. More on that story next week.
