Cait Conley
Rep. Mike Lawler
By Dan Murphy
The Cook report recently changed its rating for the Westchester race for Congress in NY-17, currently held by Rep. Mike Lalwer. Cook Political Report just shifted New York’s 17th District in Democrats’ direction from “Lean Republican” to “Toss-Up,” adding “Lawler represents a tougher district than almost any of his Republican colleagues.”
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, DCCC, wrote, “Lawler’s extreme and unpopular record has made him the subject of repeated protests, and NY-17 constituents are fed up with him prioritizing MAGA DC Politicians over their communities.
DCCC Spokesperson Riya Vashi: “After putting Donald Trump’s extreme agenda ahead of everyday New Yorkers and voting to jack up health care costs, gut food assistance, and make life more expensive for his own constituents, it’s no wonder Mike Lawler is officially facing the race of his career. New York voters will not forget his repeated lies and are more ready than ever to show him the door this November.”
Lawler is running for a third term in one of only three districts nationwide represented by a Republican that Democrat Kamala Harris won in 2024. Since he unseated Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair Sean Patrick Maloney in 2022, Lawler has proved to have staying power in the blue district, winning in 2024 by four points. He passed on a potential run for governor last summer.
Lawler recently wrote an Op-Ed in the NY Post titled “How Trump’s first-year victories tee up affordability wins in year 2.”
“Twelve months ago, Americans were rightfully angry about record inflation under Joe Biden and Kamala Harris — with rates that reached 9% in mid-2022.
What a difference a year makes.
Today, as President Donald Trump marks the one-year anniversary of his second inauguration, we are at the lowest inflation rate in five years, down 70% from that painful peak under Biden.
That reform means 90% of Hudson Valley residents can deduct their state and local taxes on their federal tax return — easing the burdens imposed by Albany.
The Republican tax cut the president signed last year means a $3,293 average tax savings for the typical Hudson Valley family of four; a new $6,000 tax deduction for our seniors; an average $3,350 savings for workers earning tips and overtime; and a $2,200 per-child tax credit for 87,770 families in my district.
“All this Democratic mismanagement is why I was proud to lead the fight in Washington to win a massive working-families tax cut, standing up to leaders in both parties to achieve a quadrupling of the SALT deduction.
“In the year ahead, I look forward to working with President Trump and my colleagues to deliver for the Hudson Valley, and for all of New York. As he says, the best is yet to come,” writes Lawler. https://nypost.com/2026/01/19/opinion/how-trumps-first-year-gains-tee-up-affordability-wins-in-year-2/.
Lawler does not yet have a democratic opponent. Seven democrats are seeking to run against Lawler in November. One candidate, Cait Conley, an Army Veteran, and former National Security Council official, is the betting favorite on the website Kalshi.com. Kalshi is the first regulated exchange dedicated to trading on the outcome of future events. Kalshi allows people to trade on a broad range of topics and allows people to capitalize on their opinions.
Bets on Kalshi include:
Which party will win NY-17 in November? Democrats-67%, Republicans 33%.
Who will be the democratic nominee in NY-17?
Cait Conley-60%
Beth Davidson-34%
Peter Chatzky-27%
Conley is part of the “Hellcats,” a group of four Democratic women with military backgrounds running for Congress in next year’s midterm elections. Democrats need to flip three Republican seats to win a House majority, which would give them the firepower to frustrate Trump’s legislative agenda and investigate his administration.
Conley and the democratic candidates seeking to challenge Lawler have highlighted the recent ICE protests and the inability for Congress to pass an extension of tax credits to the Affordable Care Act, ACA.
