Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins right, a supermajority. Center, County
Legislator Colin Smith in pre-COVID photo
By Dan Murphy
One of my democratic friends in Westchester who predicted that State Senator Peter Harckham would narrowly defeat Rob Astorino on Nov. 3, called to remind me of his forecast and to collect on our friendly wager.
During our chat, this leader of the Westchester County Democratic Committee, called Astorino “probably the single best politician in Westchester, even better than George (Latimer). But as good as Astorino is, he couldn’t overcome the Trump factor in Westchester.”
Another Westchester democrat told me that the Harckham campaign “used Latimer’s playbook from 2017,” when Latimer defeated Astorino for County Executive and won by 14 points, 57%-43%. “Most of the negative attacks were the same, the photos with Trump, the Rolex watch. Latimer used it all to victory and Harckham did the same,”
Many, including this reporter, thought that there were enough pro-Trump republicans and independents in Northern Westchester, Putnam and Dutchess Counties, to give Astorino the margin of victory in the 40th Senate District.
On Election night, Astorino has an 8,000 vote, which evaporated once the absentee ballots came in for Joe Biden for President and Harckham for re-election to State Senate. “When you lose by a couple of hundred votes, anything and everything might have worked for Harckham. Maybe it was the Rolex Rob ad, maybe the Trump-Astorino ads, maybe it was guns,” said the same Westchester democrat who won our bet.
While I agree that Astorino has been, for the past 10 years, the most effective communicator in Westchester, and that the reason he lost both of his recent elections is President Donald Trump, I also believe that Astorino’s loss signals the end of the republican party as a viable opposition to democrats in the county.
My democratic friend did not agree, saying “I’ve got a feeling that we (democrats) will start eating our young, and if republicans pick their spots, there will be opportunities for them even in deep blue Westchester. I waited four years to get rid of Trump and I wanted to celebrate on election night.
“But what I found were many democrats across the country not happy with the fact that we lost a few house races and that our victory wasn’t big enough. They started blaming different parts of the democratic base for not coming out enough to vote. Let’s enjoy our victory, please.”
But if Astorino can’t win a political contest in Westchester, which republican can? And, which Westchester republican can give the 40% of Westchester voters who are independent, conservative or republican hope that they stand a chance at the polls? “I don’t want to say that Astorino’s political career is over because I don’t want it to happen,” said one former republican elected official in Westchester. “But the fact is that if Rob can’t win then nobody can. Maybe republicans can continue to win in the towns like Eastchester, Harrison and Yorktown, but that’s it and the margins of victory in those communities are shrinking.”
For Astorino supporters in Northern Westchester, and Putnam, the final results were shocking. “Unfortunately, I have some disappointing news to report. After a long and hard-fought campaign, it turns out that we’re going to end up a little short. Our 8,000+ vote lead on Election Night has dwindled down to just a few hundred votes and there are still several thousand ballots (mostly Democrat) left to count. We knew there was an unprecedented amount of absentee ballots (35K+) and that a large majority were from registered Democrats but we had expected to continue to do well with Democrat voters as we had with “in-person” voting and to continue to win independent voters by a large margin. It didn’t turn out that way. I called Senator Peter Harckham this morning to congratulate him on his re-election,” said Astorino.
Senator Harckham said, “I am humbled and grateful for all of the tremendous support I have received during this campaign and thank all of the voters in Senate District 40 for participating in this historic election. The confidence and trust that residents have placed in me once again will continue to guide my intentions. These are challenging times, though, and I look forward to being engaged in the hard work necessary to ensure a better future for all.”
Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins said, “I’m thrilled to welcome my good friend Senator Peter Harckham back to the State Senate. Senator Harckham has worked tirelessly to deliver results to the people of Westchester, Dutchess and Putnam Counties and earned this re-election. I look forward to continuing to partner with Senator Harckham as we tackle the many challenges ahead of us.”
Majority Leader Stewart-Cousins now has a super majority of democrats in the Senate, which means that she can now override any veto that may come from Governor Andrew Cuomo.
Westchester republicans now face some sobering realities. Next November, County Executive George Latimer will be running for re-election. Latimer recently submitted a county budget with a 0% property tax increase, and has led the county, with honesty and tough love sometimes, through the Coronavirus. His only announced republican opponent is former Astorino assistant Dan Branda from Somers.
Also up for grabs are 17 seats on the Westchester County Board next November. Democrats hold a 16-1 majority, and most of their 16 seats are safe. Hopefully, republicans can pick up one seat but even that’s a long shot
In 2022 Governor Cuomo is up for re-election if he is still here in New York. Rumors are swirling that he will join President Biden in DC, despite his denials. But even without Cuomo on top of the ticket, Democrats should easily hold control of the Governor’s mansion in ’22 because the last two republican candidates for Governor, Mark Molinaro in 2018, and Astorino in 2014, got 38% and 40%, and both are still the GOP’s best hope.
Many of my political friends like to say that the tide will turn back to the republicans, but I like to reference what happened in New York City a few years ago, after Rudy Guiliani and Michael Bloomberg served as Mayor for 20 years.In 2013, the roof caved in for the GOP in NYC. Bill de Blasio has been Mayor for eight years and there are only 3 republcians out of 30 on the NY City Council and no republican stands a chance at winning a city wide race in the Big Apple.
This, I fear, is what is happening in Westchester, or what has already happened. I hope that I’m wrong, because we need competitive elections, and a choice, when we go to the polls in Westchester, and everywhere. Not only in the democratic primary but on the first Tuesday in November.
Fundraising totals: Astorino’s campaign spent $1.8 Million, with $800,000 of that coming from his County Executive campaign acouunt.Harckham’s campaign shows spending $1.4 Million, including $650,000 from the NYS Democratic Senate Campaign Committee.
In addition to the $3.2 Million spent by both campaigns, millions more was spend by PAC’s supporting both Harkcham and Astorino. At least $5 Million was spent by all of the players in this State Senate race, coming close to the most expensive race in Westchester history, the State Senate race between Latimer and Bob Cohen, which Latimer won by 10 points despite being outspent 3-1, with a total of $6 Million spent.
