State Senate Run Against Harckham Possible
By Dan Murphy
As the Republican Party in Westchester continues its decline, and search for new candidates and a pathway to electoral victories in the middle of an unpopular President Donald Trump in the county, one of its most popular politicians is considering a return to the ballot.
Former County Executive Rob Astorino, after declining to run for Rep. Nita Lowey’s congressional seat last year, is “seriously considering” running for State Senate in the 40th District, a seat currently held by democratic State Sen. Peter Harckham. Two years ago, Harckham defeated republican State Sen. Terrence Murphy.
Republicans in Westchester would welcome Astorino back to the political arena with open arms. “It’s obvious that Rob has not lost the desire to serve in politics,” said one Westchester republican. “Part of it is self-confidence and part of it is a desire, or an addiction to public service. Once you get ‘the bug’ it never goes away.”
Astorino, who currently serves as a political commentator for CNN and has other part-time consulting positions in the communications industry and with the Archdiocese of New York, served as Westchester County executive from 2009 to 2017. Astorino shocked Westchester in 2009 when he defeated democratic County Executive Andy Spano, but his supporters were as shocked in 2017 when he lost to County Executive George Latimer by 14 points.
The reason for the Astorino loss three years ago and the continued decline of the Republican Party in Westchester since then is still under debate within republican circles. Some blame it all on the election of Trump in 2016. Here in Westchester, Trump lost to Hillary Clinton by a 65-32 percent margin (with 3 percent for Jill Stein and Gary Johnson, Green and Libertarian Party candidates).
Former Westchester political consultant Mike Edelman recently blamed Astorino for tying himself, and the Westchester GOP, too closely to Trump.
“Let’s understand what the effect of Rob Astorino courting Donald Trump had on voters in the County of Westchester,” he said. “In his attempt to run for governor a second time, he hosted pro-Trump radio shows on WOR and appeared on TV in defense of Trump. Westchester voters of all stripes have rejected Trumpism in all its virulent forms. Once registration is so far out of whack that there is absolutely no chance of winning as a Republican, why remain in a party that is out of business… and who is led by an unfit, unhinged, unserious, uneducated, unremorseful and uninterested president.”
Other republicans in Westchester don’t agree with Edelman.
“Astorino didn’t pander to Trump, he had no choice,” said a Yonkers republican. “Trump was thrust upon every republican across the country. Rob shared his fears about Trump and how it would impact his re-election in Westchester with all of us in 2017. He saw it coming but there was nothing he could do. If he became a ‘never Trumper,’ Astorino still would have lost to Latimer.”
One thing Edelman highlights that is undisputable is the continued decline in republican enrollment in Westchester. Recently updated numbers from the Board of Elections show in Westchester with 301,000 active democrats, 124,000 active republicans and 141,000 active voters registered to no party.
That is the political reality that Astorino, and other republicans in Westchester, have to deal with – very few competitive races for a republican in the county.
But one seat that is still republican-viable is in the 40th State Senate District, which includes northern Westchester. The district runs south to the Town of Mt. Pleasant in Westchester, where Astorino lives, and into parts of the republican-rich counties of Putnam and Dutchess, where Trump won both counties in 2016.
Last year, Astorino was asked about a political comeback. “I think sometimes a door opens up when you don’t expect it to and you have to decide whether you want to run through it, or try to, and whether it’s the right fit,” he said. “You know, sometimes you’re out and your star fades, your name fades, your hair fades and you’re done. Right now, I don’t think I’m at that point, so we’ll see. I don’t have to make a decision right now on anything, which is good: I have the time.”
Two other factors that point to Astorino taking a hard look at State Senate are: he still has more than $800,000 in his campaign account from his run for governor, and he still has visions of running for governor again – and winning.
“Rob still wants to run for governor again,” said a Westchester republican. “That race is still in his blood, and the best way to stay relevant and active is to go to Albany and serve in the State Senate. That way he can interact with all of the republicans in the state and stay in the spotlight.”
If elected, Astorino would likely be serving in a minority of republican senators. Currently, the State Senate has a 40-22, 1 vacant, democratic majority. And a race against Harckham will not be an easy endeavor in a presidential year with Trump on top of the republican ticket and anybody’s guess on top of the democratic ticket (Bernie, Bloomberg, Biden, Hillary?).
In 2016, Murphy won his re-election over-little known democrat Ali Boak by more than 20 points, with Trump and Clinton on top of the ticket. So it is not impossible to envision Astorino winning with Trump on top of the ticket in 2020.
This writer’s opinion of Astorino and the state of republican politics in Westchester has always been that he was the republican shining star in the county that kept everyone from examining the real problems – in enrollment, in recruiting talented candidates and growing a “farm team” of young republicans. Astorino was able to gloss over the troubles in the party by winning in 2009 and 2013 and forging a bi-partisan coalition on the county board. And by keeping property tax increases on the county level at 0 percent, by hook or by crook.
Also, remember Astorino came to power in 2009, the year before the Tea Party came to the national forefront. He was the right candidate at the right time. Can lighting strike twice? We shall see if he announces his candidacy – and he has to decide soon. The election process has moved up in New York State, and petitions will be going out this week.
For the good of the Republican Party in Westchester, all hopes are on Astorino again, because there is no other popular, viable and well-spoken republican in the county that wants to run for countywide office. Murphy was one name tossed about for county executive before he lost to Harckham in 2018. Eastchester Supervisor Tony Colavita was always the other name of a possible republican who could run and win countywide, but for him and other republicans, the numbers don’t add up anymore.
