Was the Democrats Poll last week that had Conley up 6 for real?
Independent co/efficient polling shows Mike Lawler leads Cait Conley 50 to 45, and Lawler is up 15 points with independent voters in critical House race.
A new survey from independent polling firm co/efficient shows Congressman Mike Lawler leading Cait Conley 50% to 45% in New York’s 17th District, with just 5% undecided. The survey sampled almost 1,300 likely general election voters. Lawler’s lead is built on crossover support from his independent brand. Lawler wins unaffiliated voters 54 to 39, and takes 23 percent of registered Democrats.
The poll also shows New York Democrats badly underwater in NY-17. New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani posts a 37-53 job rating in the district, Governor Kathy Hochul sits at 36-49, and 63 percent of likely voters, including a 51 percent majority who are very concerned, worry about the rise of socialism in New York. Among independents, that concern hits 64 percent.
Two weeks ago, Conley’s allies were telling a very different story. On July 8, House Majority PAC, the super PAC whose entire mission is electing House Democrats, released a poll claiming Conley led 51% to 45%. Who ran that poll? FM3 Research, a Democratic polling firm, on the PAC’s dime. Conley’s campaign then blasted out a release the same day declaring she was “surging.”
“Cait Conley’s campaign has spent the past month claiming she’s ‘taking the lead.’ Her whole campaign is riding on a number her DC donors and funders paid for, and an independent survey of nearly 1,300 voters just showed Mike Lawler winning this race by 5 points, all while crushing Cait amongst independent voters,” said Lawler for Congress campaign manager Ciro Riccardi. “If Cait has to rely on her DC donors to continue to prop up her campaign, she’s in for a rude awakening in November. We anticipate Mike will be ‘surging’ past Cait on Election Night as he heads towards a third term of delivering for Hudson Valley voters. Fortunately for Cait, she can go back to her lucrative consulting for AI defense contractors, maybe even helping advise them on who to deport next.”
The full polling memo can be found HERE.
Details of the poll, include:
A district split down the middle on the President
These same respondents divided 49 to 48 for Harris in 2024 and divide 50 to 49 on Trump today. The five point congressional lead is ticket splitting, not a Republican leaning sample.
The lead is built on crossover votes
Lawler holds Republicans 82 to 14, wins the unaffiliated middle, and takes nearly a quarter of registered Democrats, in an electorate Democrats out register 41 to 30.
New York Democrats are underwater in NY-17
The party’s two most visible New York figures both post double digit negative job ratings here, and President Trump’s 44 percent approval runs 7 to 8 points higher than the marks voters give Mamdani (37) and Hochul (36).
63% are concerned about the rise of socialism in New York
A 51 percent majority is very concerned about the rise of socialism and of DSA candidates, and the worry reaches 64 percent of unaffiliated voters, the same bloc breaking to Lawler by fifteen.
B O T TO M L I N E
An incumbent at 50 percent with only 5 percent undecided, carrying unaffiliated voters by fifteen and nearly a quarter of registered
Democrats, against a party whose New York leaders are all underwater in a district where 63 percent worry about the rise of of socialism: the fundamentals of this race favor Lawler.
M E T H O D O L O G Y & S A M P L E C O M P O S I T I O N
Survey of 1,292 likely general election voters in New York’s 17th Congressional District, conducted using mobile text responses and landline interviews. Results are weighted on the age, gender, education level, race, county, and registered party of the likely general electorate. Margin of error +/- 2.71%. Not sponsored by any candidate or candidates committee.
PARTY REG.
Democrat 41%
Republican 30%
Unaffil. / oth. 28%
GENDER
Female 52%
Male 48%
AGE
18-34 10%
35-44 14%
45-54 17%
55-64 21%
65+ 37%
EDUCATION
Non college 48%
College 28%
Post grad 24%
COUNTY
Westchester 42%
Rockland 37%
Putnam 14%
Dutchess 6%
VOTE HISTORY
4 of 4 52%
3 of 4 25%
2 of 4 14%
1 of 4 6%
0 of 4 3%
Editor’s Note: The details provided in this poll from coefficient.org provide significantly more detail than a poll conducted by the House Majority PAC and shared by the DCCC. Their poll, which we shared and featured on our front page, had Cait Conley up by 6 points over Lawler. When we asked for some details, or cross-tabs, or anything other than the few details provided in their press release, they declined. Based on this new poll, and the information they have shared with the public, we wonder what demographic was used by House Majority PAC to come up with their results.