By Stephen Rolandi, Larchmont
· Mayor of NYC
This is one of the most unusual elections in the City’s history, featuring a disgraced former Governor, a new “fresh face” & member of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), and until three weeks ago, an incumbent Mayor facing numerous court cases and investigations.
This election is a “change” election, with an electorate that looks much different than it did in ’21.This race has drawn national & international attention. Mr. Mamdani has run a highly organized campaign and connects well with voters. Main issues are affordability and housing, followed by crime as a close second. NYC is heavily anti-Trump, and that will favor Mr. Mamdani. The turnout in the June Democratic Primary was 1.1 million voters, a near record (going back to 1989). I expect turnout to be about 40% of the 5.1 million registered voters (over 1 million are registered independents which will help Andrew Cuomo). The Democrats & WFP parties are united, as well as most labor unions behind Mamdani. Most races tighten at the end, and this one is no different. Polling to date has been pretty consistent. Here is my call:
Mamdani (D-WFP) 45 %
Cuomo (Ind.) 37 %
Sliwa (R-Ind.) 14 %
Estrada (Con.) 2%
Others 2%
Cuomo will likely carry the Bronx and Staten Island, while Mamdani will win Brooklyn, Queens and Manhattan.
GOVERNOR OF VIRGINIA & NEW JERSEY
These two races have national implications, and given the rising levels of inflation prices and the negative effects of the prolonged Federal government shutdown, the Democrats should win both races:
VIRGINIA – Governor
Spanberger (D) 53%
Sears (R) 47%
New Jersey Governor
Sherrill (D) 51%
Ciaterilli (R) 49%
Stephen Rolandi is an adjunct professor of public administration at Pace University and John Jay College of Criminal Justice, City University of New York. He correctly called the results of the major elections in 2020, 2021 and 2022.
