Reliability violations identified in New York City and Long Island due to generator retirements, rising demand
Two separate reports released this week from the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) provide important insights into evolving challenges of maintaining reliability of the high voltage electric system as consumer demand increases and generation retires.
The NYISO’s third-quarter Short-Term Assessment of Reliability (STAR) studies electric system reliability over a five-year period from July 15, 2025, through July 15, 2030, and identifies reliability violations in New York City and Long Island beginning in the summer of 2026. The violations are driven by generator deactivations, increasing consumer demand, and transmission limitations. The STAR report is final.
The 2025-2034 Comprehensive Reliability Plan (CRP), issued biennially, sets forth the plan to maintain a reliable electric grid over a ten-year planning period. The CRP warns that the New York State electric system faces an era of profound reliability challenges driven by the convergence of three structural trends: the aging of the existing generation fleet; the rapid growth of large loads (e.g.: data centers and semiconductor manufacturing); and the increasing difficulty of developing new supply resources due to public policies, supply chain constraints and rising costs for equipment. The CRP was issued this week in draft form and is expected to be final in November.
Both reports are issued publicly under the NYISO’s planning processes, which is approved by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC).
“Taken together, these two reports show the grid is at a significant inflection point,” said Zach Smith, Senior Vice President of System and Resource Planning for the New York Independent System Operator. “Depending on future demand growth and generator retirements, the system may need several thousand megawatts of new dispatchable generation within the next ten years.”
The reliability needs identified by the STAR in New York City and Long Island are based on a deficiency in transmission security. Transmission security analysis tests the ability of the power system to withstand disturbances, such as electric short circuits or unanticipated loss of a generator or a transmission line, while continuing to supply and deliver electricity to consumers during peak demand when the system is stressed.
The finding of a reliability need initiates a process administered by the NYISO to bring reliability margins back to acceptable operating levels. The NYISO will begin the process immediately by working with the local utilities and the marketplace to identify and evaluate possible solutions. Transmission, generation, energy efficiency or a combination of each can qualify as solutions through the process.
Considering the unprecedented changes happening across the bulk electric system, the CRP uses several informational scenarios to examine the impacts of key risk factors and capture possible outcomes for grid planning purposes. Major factors that influence the scenarios include aging generation, variable demand forecasts, weather variability, and ongoing delays in developing additional resources. The CRP also shows different scenarios of resource additions to demonstrate potential solutions to support long-term grid reliability.
The following statement is from the Business Council of Westchester’s Clean Energy Action Coalition.
The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) just warned that the state’s electric grid is nearing capacity and will face blackouts unless we “…add several thousand megawatts of new dispatchable generation within the next ten years.”
We narrowly avoided catastrophe in the heat wave this past June, and we are highly vulnerable to the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Simultaneously, older plants are retiring faster than new projects are coming online, even as demand for electricity and data keeps climbing.
This is exactly why the Clean Energy Action Coalition (CEAC), led by the Business Council of Westchester, was formed. We know the threat to the health and economy of Westchester – and all of New York State.
Transmission, solar generation, battery energy storage, and energy efficiency are the keys. And we need to move now. We need to finish critical transmission lines, keep clean-energy projects on schedule, and expand efficiency programs that cut demand and lower costs.
There is no Plan B for our energy future. Westchester has the tools and insight to lead, with the workforce, technology and partnerships already in place. Together with NYISO, utilities, and state leaders, we can strengthen grid reliability – before the crisis strikes.
Clean energy is the path forward. Let’s move together. Today.
