By Dan Murphy
On March 14, a new poll conducted in the race for NY Governor, between democrat Governor Kathy Hochul and republican Congressman Lee Zeldin has the two in a statistical heat, with Zeldin at 45% and Hochul at 44%.
The poll was conducted by McLaughlin and Associates, who conduct many republican polls but produce reliable outcomes.
The poll is bad news for democrats, who have been warning fellow New York Democrats that a “Red Wave” of republican support could be coming for the November election, as a result of issues including crime, bail reform, high gas prices and inflation.
The other two takeaways from the poll is that any honeymoon Governor Hochul had after she replaced Andrew Cuomo last year is over. And the 44% that she got in this poll is also disappointing for an incumbent to receive less than 50%.
Because Congressman Zeldin, from Long Island, is not well know across the state, the poll shows that 45% of New Yorkers polled are willing to vote for anyone but Hochul. What the poll does for Zeldin, who became the NY GOP endorsed candidate for Governor last week, is show republicans that he can beat Hochul in November, thus hurting the three republican challengers to him; Rob Astorino, Harry Wilson and Andrew Giuliani.
“Over the last year, we have built an unparalleled movement, powered by thousands of volunteers, tens of thousands of grassroots donations and scores of New Yorkers who are waking up and all in to Save Our State,” said Congressman Zeldin.“These numbers aren’t because of luck. They’re thanks to hard-work, the right message, strategy and execution, and also taking absolutely nothing for granted. As we continue to get our message out coming off of this month’s Republican and Conservative Party conventions and after airing television and radio ads statewide since the beginning of February, it’s never been more clear that we have the issues on our side, we have the momentum of our side, and there’s a big red wave headed straight for New York in 2022.”
“The results show the current political trends in New York are increasingly favorable for Lee Zeldin to win the Governor’s race. McLaughlin & Associates has decades of experience polling in New York and, in 2021, did the polling for the upset victories of Nassau County District Attorney Anne Donnelly, Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman and the Conservative Party victories to defeat statewide Propositions 1, 3 and 4.
Topline Survey Results:
Zeldin leads Hochul, 45.5% to 44%, 10.5% undecided
Zeldin has more intensity to his vote – 36% Definitely vote for Zeldin / 28% Definitely vote for Hochul
President Joe Biden 12.5-point net negative – 42.6% approve to 55.1% disapprove
Hochul 4.2-point net negative overall — 44.3% approve to 48.5% disapprove
51% of voters prefer a Republican candidate to serve as a check and balance to the Democrat controlled legislature
19% of voters say crime is their top issue (#1 issue to voters)
17.5% of voters say taxes are their top issue (#2 issue to voters)
Methodology:
This New York Statewide survey was conducted among 800 likely general election voters between March 9-11, 2022.
A multi-modal approach was employed via live telephone calls and self-administered text messages. The live telephone interviews were conducted by professional interviewers with respondents contacted by both landline phone and cell phone.
The sample includes a mix of 33.7% landline, 33.5% live-caller cellphones interviews, and 32.8% text to cell interviews. Interview selection was at random within predetermined election units. These units were structured to statistically correlate with actual statewide general election voter turnout.
The margin of error is 3.4%.
Of the 800 likely general election voters sampled:
50% are Registered to the Democratic Party (48.4%) or Working Families Party (1.6%)
27% are Registered to the Republican Party (25%) or Conservative Party (2.2%)
23% are Independent/Blank Registered Voters
Unlike other surveys, which have been shown to oversample New York City, of the 800 likely general election voters in this survey, 33.7% are from New York City. Additionally, unlike other surveys, which have been undersampling Republican Party voters, this survey estimates a Republican Party voter turnout of 27.2%, which is still a conservative estimate. Based on 2010 and 2014 turnout numbers, as well as numerous other factors, the Zeldin for New York campaign predicts Republican Party turnout will be over 30% in New York in 2022,” writes the Zeldin campaign is a release touting the results.
Yes this is a poll conducted and paid for by Zeldin, and yes McLaughlin is a republican pollster. But the numbers and methodolgy is legitimate, and alarming for New York Democrats. Whether these numbers translate into any victories for Westchester republicans on the local level remains unclear.
But for those Westchester democrats who thought that having Governor Hochul at the top of the ticket would benefit their local candidates by between 5-10 points, this point says otherwise.
